According to market research firm IDC's first global VR/AR (Augmented Reality) helmet shipment report, global VR/AR helmet shipments continued to soar in the first quarter of 2017, reaching 2.3 million units. - This is a good number, but it is still not as expected at the end of 2015. The industry believes that the reality of cold ice makes VR return to rationality, which will shape the new VR industry in 2017.
VR's 2016 roller coaster-like "data"
How much did VR products sell in 2016? SuperData released a report in early December, saying that the annual sales of Google Cardboard is about 84.4 million units. This figure is much higher than its forecast of 27.1 million units in January 2016. However, the author has to say that this data does not have much meaning.
Because the true meaning of Cardboard is "cheap 3D glasses." The essence is nothing more than a box, two lenses, and then a mobile phone. In the domestic market, the price of such products is only 20-90 yuan. Another report shows that almost all of these products come from manufacturers with strong "cottage" flavors, and the application experience is not good.
For the real VR helmet products, SuperData released a report in early December, said Samsung Gear VR is about 2.316 million units, Sony PSVR is about 745,000 units, HTC Vive is about 450,000 units, and Oculus Rift is about 35. 50,000 units, Google Daydream View is about 260,000 units. This data is lower than SuperData's forecast in January 2016. Samsung Gear VR will reach 2.5 million units, Sony PSVR will reach 1.9 million units, and PC VR (Oculus Rift + HTC Vive) will reach 6.6 million units. - Even the actual situation of Oculus Rift + HTC Vive is less than one-eighth of the predicted value. Even so, SuperData's data still believes that the 2016 VR helmet has nearly 4.126 million sales, which is much higher than the sales of another 2.91 million units of the other data organization Jibang Technology in the December 16 report, but lower than Super. Data's report of 6.3 million units.
The IDC report, based on data from the first quarter of this year, believes that VR equipment sales in 2017 may have a three-digit growth. Looking at four times the 2.3 million in the first quarter, that is, at least 10 million units in the global market. This conclusion basically supports the conclusion that 2016 VR heads reached 4.126 million sales.
However, regardless of the market size in 2016, which is 2.91 million, or 4.126 million, this figure is “substantially shrinking†with the forecast at the end of 2015 and early 2016: even 40% of the planned “missions†have not been completed. Consensus. In fact, around June 2016 was the peak of the entire VR market. Since then, the industry has been lower, the market has become more rational, and it is recognized that the popularity of VR is not ready for core hardware technology or content.
What is the "true meaning" of looking up to ten million units in 2017?
IDC's first quarter data, Samsung Gear VR is the most popular, the price is relatively cheap, the shipments reached 490,000, the market share of 21.5%, ranking first; Sony ranked second, PlayStaTIon VR shipments of 42 90,000, market share is 18.8%; HTC is the third largest VR helmet supplier, Vive shipped a total of 191,000, with a share of 8.4%; Facebook and TCL ranked fourth and Five, the Oculus Rift and Alcatel VR helmet shipments of the two companies were 100,000 and 91,000, respectively, with a market share of 4.4% and 4.0%.
This "manufacturer" strength table is actually the biggest pattern of the giant: Samsung, Sony is currently the biggest winner in the VR market. Although Samsung’s share has declined, it still ranks first. Its main competitive advantage comes from the brand appeal, that is, Samsung is the world's largest color TV and mobile phone manufacturers, and VR is considered to be "another display" other than color TVs and mobile phones. Sony's advantage lies in its fact that it is the world's largest game console manufacturer, and Sony VR is basically the stock customer of PS game console. The third place HTC is characterized by "expensive", that is, high quality is its main selling point. This is consistent with the previous HTC mobile phone product ideas.
The rise in Sony's share of HTC is considered to be one of the reasons for the decline in Samsung's share (another reason is the explosion of the Galaxy Note7). This change represents the "quality" to defeat the "price" - that is, Sony and HTC are more expensive, but the consumer market is still willing to accept.
Of course, the products of these brands in IDC's report are not "cheap 3D glasses" of "one for twenty yuan", but the real VR heads of thousands of dollars (except Samsung Gear VR). These “true†VRs are also the future market direction identified by industry bodies. That is to say, Cardboard is a product that can't get on the table, so that IDC and others are not willing to spend energy to research.
In fact, the definition of quality products in the consumer electronics industry has never left the main line of “priceâ€. For example, MP3 products are the most popular, most products are hundreds of dollars, the market sales have been huge, and participating brands are very many. However, after the big waves washed sand, the brands that have been retained on this basis are now almost only one of Meizu. “If a consumer electronics product is too cheap, it can't accumulate application and cognitive stickiness – because consumers tend to think that this product is not technically difficult, and it doesn't take too much thought to appreciate the differences between different brands. ". That is, low prices lead to disregard, which in turn makes it difficult to accumulate brand awareness.
So, even if Cardboard really has a mass of 80 million in 2016, it is just a passing sight. The future VR is still to be born from the "three-four million" "real head". The latter is the expectation of the VR market in 2017.
How to define a high quality vr head display device
In the above mainstream products, the price of Samsung Gear VR is in sharp contrast with Sony and HTC products. As the world's largest consumer electronics brand, why doesn't Samsung push the "high price" VR? The author believes that this is a false proposition! Not Samsung does not push high-end VR, but Samsung is waiting for an opportunity.
What is this opportunity? It is a high resolution, high refresh rate OLED display screen. According to news reports, Samsung has privately demonstrated VR head-mounted display with 1200 PPI resolution. At the same time, a head-up sample with 1500 PPI is being produced. At the end of 2016, news reports said that Samsung will launch a 1700PPI OLED VR screen, with a final target of up to 2000PPI. Compared with the current 500ppi benchmark and even lower standard VR equipment, the fineness of the product quality and the continuity of the screen will be fundamentally improved, and the screen window effect will be completely eliminated.
At the same time, another display problem with VR products is the sense of dizziness. This problem comes from the "low refresh" frequency of the display screen. If it is displayed as a mobile phone or TV, the refresh rate of 60HZ has already met the demand or can provide a good experience. However, VR is too close to the eye, it requires not only higher resolution, but also a higher refresh rate. Products including 90hz products and targets up to 170HZ have entered the development sequence. It is best to have a refresh rate of 1000HZ to provide an excellent visual experience.
At present, there is sufficient market news that the new VR products in the third and fourth quarters of 2017 will break through the two indicators of 2K*2K resolution and 90hz refresh rate - that is, the resolution is increased to 3.5 times, and the refresh rate is Progress is 50%. These products are the future direction, and they can be called "real" high-end products. It is believed that under the continuous technical efforts of Samsung, the new generation of Gear VR will not only perform better, but also “rise†to a reasonable position in price.
Of course, VR is more than just a display. Compared with smartphones, VR certainly needs better display technology, but this does not mean that VR's computing power, storage capacity, and communication capabilities will be greatly reduced. In fact, the author believes that the VR head is more like a "smart phone" with a greatly improved display technology. From this perspective, in the same positioning market, the price of VR head display should be higher than that of smartphone products.
With display as the center, computing power as support, storage and communication capabilities as an aid, combined with excellent materials science, ergonomic design and necessary auxiliary functions (such as battery life, remote control, virtual touch, etc.), the design of the VR head is the real Excellent product. The cost of such products cannot be tens of dollars, or even three or four hundred yuan: the price scale of a high-quality VR is at least comparable to current high-end smartphones.
The VR market has opened and how the brand is laid out
In March of this year, iQiyi launched the first VR head-mounted product in China, using a 806PPI screen, and the starting price was 3,499 yuan. This price is in a completely different product orientation from Storm Mirror, previous Xiao Yue, LeTV COOL1. The former is mainly aimed at high-end professional user experience.
In fact, iQiyi and LeTV are the two major copyright video content providers, and the layout on VR is very similar: each has high-end products and low-end "cheap 3D glasses Cardboard". Although for the Cardboard, the industry agrees that it is not a "final product", it has limited effect, large side effects, and can not accumulate brand stickiness, but after all, it is a product with a low price to "try it" and has a huge sales volume. Content vendors don't dare not layout, so as to avoid traffic loss.
In the professional VR head-on, the quality contest determines the future industry status: including configuration, optimization technology, brand and content resource support, etc., has become the focus of market competition. From the perspective of comprehensive competitiveness, the advantages of content providers are not great, and equipment vendors are more advantageous. For example, the sales of Samsung and Sony are the best proof.
Samsung's core strength lies in its brand and technology, especially its OLED screen technology. Therefore, Samsung has chosen a high-end product layout process starting from the low end. This process relies on Samsung's technical confidence and core strength to further consolidate Samsung's "brand charm" - consumers have seen that Samsung's product pricing and quality are positively related. Sony's strengths are mainly in the resource system formed by PS game consoles, including content, brand, culture and stock market. At the same time, Facebook is actively deploying VR as a content platform internationally. His core appeal is similar to iQiyi and LeTV. The main application is video and live broadcast, which has a gaming experience.
Overall, VR competition is divided into two camps of content providers and equipment vendors. Internationally, equipment manufacturers are dominant, and domestic market content providers are more enthusiastic. From the perspective of future development, the content business camp will also expand, including TV stations, live broadcast platforms, and game platforms, all of which may join the competition; equipment vendors will cover mobile phone, TV, box and other product line systems. In the future, VR will probably be " The most chaotic product line of smart devices."
From this, it can be concluded that the real special law of the VR industry: although the market has not developed much, but the participants of the tiger's vision have gone "the sea." This is also the reason for the 2016 industry roller coaster-like data report: the amount of confidence in cohesion far exceeds the normal process of market growth. Although the former promoted the accelerated expansion of the market, it brought market distortions.
These market distortions include: high proportion of low-experience products, industry forecast data is much higher than actual market growth, high-risk strategic operation of new brands, rapid expansion of downstream content market, and many initials in the process of market temperature decline. Enter the brand's stampede. Of course, these distortions have disappeared with the passing of 2016. The 2017 VR has become more pragmatic. And the annual global tens of millions of VR heads, this scale and mobile phones (1.5 billion) is still relatively small, even compared with 200 million color TV sets, is a small scale, the future upside is still very huge. It still has the realistic foundation to form “sufficient industry confidenceâ€.
Dialysis of the nature of VR, how fast the industry can progress
Why is the industry's enthusiasm for VR in 2016? This has something to do with the real threshold of the VR industry.
From the experience point of view, VR emphasizes big screen and 3D stereo. The way to achieve a big screen is "near-eye" - this is no technical content; the way to achieve 3D is "left and right eye-sharing" - this is a technology that has been around for decades. This essence also leads to the fact that VR content is actually the return and engraving of 3D content. Therefore, YiVian has statistics on four content distribution platforms: Oculus Home, Steam, Viveport and PlayStaTIon Store: VR consumer content (games + apps) was only 213 in 2015, and reached 2378 by the end of 2016. , turned 11 times, the growth rate was as high as 1016%, such explosion data. Because making 3D content is really not new technology.
From a technical point of view, VR's first products, in addition to industrial design, are basically "take the goods in the mobile phone market." Including the display screen, computing CPU platform, storage and communication, battery technology, etc., all rely on the mobile phone market. The remote control technology, optical lens technology, and the "many" part of the mobile phone are derived from "older and traditional industries." At present, the latest generation in 2017, with a resolution of 800ppi VR, only the display is developed independently. However, this high-resolution high-refresh rate display unit is still rooted in the huge mature industry of OLED and liquid crystal display panels.
From the perspective of the whole machine product, VR is a product that is deeply supported by the foundry industry and is deeply supported by the mobile phone manufacturing industry. At this point, the only special thing is that the shape of the headwear needs other light industry, such as shoes and hats, plastics, hardware products industry support. The latter is also an extremely mature industrial system.
Therefore, from the perspective of product nature, VR is a typical "application innovation" technology, rather than a "core breakthrough" new product. This law determines that VR has a short-term industrial base, both upstream and downstream. This is why many companies dare to "hard conditions" of "confidence."
However, the support capacity of the supply end is not equal to the acceptance ability of the demand side. Because of a great experience VR, such as 4K products, the price can not be too low. Even if the technology continues to mature and the scale continues to expand, mainstream products will be at a price of 1,000 yuan, while high-end products will maintain a price of three or four thousand. For such a high-priced product, it is not a standard that mobile phones are necessary for communication, social and payment devices. Television as a home entertainment center and sharing center is the most accepted choice for most people - VR is a private device in the consumer market. Equipment that lacks the necessary value (except for educational applications, medical applications, industrial applications, of course).
This creates a combination of “high price + non-essentialâ€, which will hinder the expansion of VR. This is also the reason why many manufacturers are so hard on the tens of dollars of cheap 3D glasses - since the necessity is not strong, then cheap enough is the basis of impulse.
In summary, VR products are an area full of contradictions. There are huge tears and mismatches in performance, experience, cost, market acceptance, and industry supply capabilities. Under such a situation, it is difficult to get accurate conclusions about how fast or how slow the industry is. Therefore, the predictions of many industry organizations in 2016 “seriously faceâ€.
However, no matter what the difficulty is, there are 2.3 million units in the first quarter of 2017, which is still a very good data. The goal of 10 million units in the whole year is not “highâ€. A VR consumer era has arrived. Both consumers and manufacturers need to be prepared for this.
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