Unicom lost users for 11 consecutive months last year

On the 19th, China Unicom released business data for December 2015. The data shows that the number of Unicom subscribers in the mobile business was lost to 287 million. Among them, 3G and 4G subscribers increased by 3.612 million, but 2G subscribers decreased by 3.87 million.

Although the user's loss rate slowed down in November, it was the 11th consecutive month that Unicom had lost users, with a total loss of 12.44 million users.

At the same time, China Mobile and China Telecom performed well, especially China Mobile, which saw a significant increase in the number of users per month. Data show that in November 2015, China's mobile subscribers increased by 12.12 million, an annual cumulative increase of 18.554 million; China Telecom mobile phone users increased by 1.03 million to 197 million, a cumulative increase of 10.95 million.

Overall, China Mobile still dominates the market with a 63% share, far exceeding Unicom's 22% and Telecom's 15%.

For the reasons for the downturn in China Unicom's business, researcher Fu Liang told reporters in the telecommunications industry that this is certainly related to the development of 4G services. In addition, the relatively strict real-name system removes a part of false users, less investment in marketing costs, and excessive development of dealers are the main reasons for the loss of users.

However, Fu Liang reminded that the simple user number is not as important as people think. The important thing is how many actual effective users are, such as “users whose monthly charges exceed 10 yuan”—“It depends on the overall revenue”. ,He said.

In order to control the situation, China Unicom has been trying every means to keep warm with telecoms.

In November last year, China Unicom announced the development of a "China Unicom and Telecom 4G network sharing proposal." In December last year, China Unicom and China Telecom jointly issued a "six-mode full-network communication terminal white paper" to the terminal industry chain; a week ago, the two companies also Jointly signed a strategic cooperation agreement of “co-construction and sharing of resources and upgrading of customer service”, and will conduct in-depth cooperation in five aspects: network co-construction and sharing, enrichment of terminal categories, adoption of new mechanisms, and marketization of operations to carry out innovative business cooperation. It means that there will be capital-level cooperation in the future.

After many cooperation agreements were reached, shares of Unicom and Telecom listed in Hong Kong rose by more than 7% for a time, showing investors' affirmation of these actions.

Shengbo Telecom analyst Chris Lane has said that for the two companies, the key content is to agree to share a new rural 4G network, as well as a national smart phone standards proposal, which will allow the two companies to save 30 % to 40% of capital expenditures and 50% of operating expenses.

The increasingly close relationship has caused rumors that the two are about to merge, even though the executives of the two operators have repeatedly denied such rumors.

Nanhui economic commentator Cai Hui recently analyzed that if the two are really combined, the biggest advantage is that they restore the market equilibrium and diversity of consumer choices. This competitive environment can also enable consumers to enjoy better services and avoid movement. 4G is the only one.

However, Fu Liang expressed disagreement. He believes that the probability of a merger between the two is not high, because once the merger, it will have to go through a complicated and difficult long integration period. In the short term, the gap with the move will even be even greater; if not By sharing resource sharing, it may be possible to close the gap as soon as possible.

“There is no time. If you go back to the end of the official release of 4G licenses by the end of 2013, there will be opportunities for (China Unicom) to restructure and merge. It is too scary to move more than 20 million subscribers each year for a few hundred million subscribers a year. Fu Liang said.

As mobile is ahead of 4G, China Unicom is likely to continue the difficult situation in the past in 2016. However, this company has not demonstrated its determination to change the past. Perhaps only if it truly hits the bottom, will Unicom be able to reshape the business to usher in a turnaround.