Tesla Model 3 will grab some sales from the traditional fuel vehicle market of 300,000-400,000 to the new energy vehicle market, and in some major cities, especially Beijing, steal some electric vehicles that belonged to autonomous vehicles. Sales volume has caused a devastating blow to the sales of electric vehicles between the current energy market of 300,000-400,000.
If properly marketed, Model 3 may set off a wave of similar Apple mobile phones, attracting more people to pay attention to understanding new energy vehicles, thereby indirectly expanding China's new energy vehicle market. If a group of domestic electric vehicle companies work hard enough, Like the Apple+Millet mobile phone of the past, China’s new energy vehicle market has been pushed to the forefront of the world like a mobile phone. Therefore, Model 3 will have an impact on the sales of new energy vehicles. (My estimate is about one-fifth of the total sales of new energy vehicles, only on behalf of personal opinions), but it is more likely to be new to China. The boost of the energy vehicle market.
The above picture is a simple comparison between Model S and X-US. We put aside the exchange rate, transportation cost and other factors, and simply make a prediction on the price of Model 3 China. S is 9.05, X is 9.94, and Model 3 We take a median of 9.5, and the Model 3 China sells for about 330,000. This is similar to the calculation of many media by tax.
Then we will first analyze the characteristics of the crowd buying a car around 300,000-400,000:
More than 1,300,000 just really entered the door of the luxury car brand: 3 series of BMW, C-class Mercedes-Benz, A4L Audi, etc., of course, there will be some high-end cars that choose other brands.
2, this part of the population corresponds to China's entry-level middle class, the pursuit of the brand, although already have money to buy a luxury car, but the price is still relatively sensitive, there are some families who eat and use as a luxury car.
3. In addition, some wealthy middle class will purchase this price as the second car of the family to use daily.
Next, let's take a look at China's new energy vehicle market:
According to statistics from the Federation, the sales volume of new energy vehicles from January to December 2016 was 320,000, of which 240,000 were pure electric vehicles, accounting for about three-quarters, and 80,000 plug-in hybrids were sold. According to the statistics of the top ten cities in the first ten months, according to the statistics of the eight major cities in Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Guiyang, Hangzhou and Shenzhen, about 145,000 new energy vehicles were sold in the first 10 months, with the top 10 About 60% of the monthly sales, about 60% of new energy is sold in restricted cities.
According to the historical data of the Association, 300,000-400,000 passenger cars (including SUVs) accounted for about 5% of the total sales of passenger cars. According to the data released by the Ministry of Commerce spokesperson, the sales volume of passenger cars in 2016 reached 24.37 million. New energy vehicles accounted for more than 500,000 vehicles in the whole year, and new energy vehicles accounted for more than 2%. There is a gap between the data released by the spokesperson of the Federation and the Ministry of Commerce, but the ratio is not much different. I will not do a detailed study.
At present, the main sales price range (after subsidies) of electric vehicles in China's new energy market is between 100,000 and 200,000. Of course, there is one electric vehicle that cannot be ignored in the current new energy vehicle market between 300,000 and 400,000. : Tengshi, BMW i3, although the subsidy is basically not enough to reach the range of 30-40 million, but it is very close. In addition, BYD MPV version e6 and several manufacturers are priced at more than 300,000 electric vehicles, but the actual subsidy is not far from the price range of 300,000-400,000. Tengshi sold 2,287 vehicles in 2016, and the Chinese salesman of BMW i3 has not been found. It can only be calculated through a global sales volume. In the first half of 2016, BMW i3 sold 9303 units, and China’s sales volume was less than 1%. That is There aren't even a hundred cars, and the annual sales volume should be at most 100.
With the above data, we can see what changes the Model 3 will bring:
1, affluent middle-class purchase of a second daily scooter is likely to choose to buy a Model 3 try, because the home has a fuel car is not afraid of long-distance, second, the price is more acceptable than the Model S, three totes Pulling the brand effect is better, which will attract the people who originally planned to buy fuel vehicles to increase the sales of new energy vehicles.
2, the plan to buy the first entry luxury car, but also prepare to buy only one car family will face difficult choices, they may only a small part will turn from fuel luxury car to Model 3, but according to the 2016 Beijing market An electric car that can be directly on the card can make a determination for the middle class who has not shaken the number plate for a long time and does not bother to buy an independent electric car. So Model 3 can pull a small amount of sales from the fuel vehicle market, and it is not too small to dig away from Beijing's new energy vehicle market (the ratio is temporarily not good, but according to Beijing's income level, there is still no small Proportion) market. Of course, from the remaining seven restricted cities, they will be snatched by Model 3 in a slightly lower proportion than the Beijing market.
3. The remaining unrestricted cities occupying 40% of new energy vehicle sales, the proportion of middle class will be lower than that of first-tier cities, plus the pressure of no need to limit the price of Tesla from the existing new energy vehicle market. Not too high.
4. For the existing consumer population of 100,000-200,000 electric vehicles, the price gap will have little impact on sales, and there will be a devastating impact on the existing 300,000-400,000 electric vehicles and the BMW i3. Tengshi loses in the brand effect, although the BMW i3 does not lose the brand, but in 2016 the poor performance and endurance in the Chinese market, the appearance and other aspects are defeated. I wonder if the BMW i3, which has been running for 400 kilometers, will come out.
5, Tesla is like the Apple of the car, the high price of Model S and Model X makes it stay in the plaything of the wealthy class, but down to the level of 350,000, more middle class can also begin to play. Just as Apple opened the era of smartphones and big-screen phones, Tesla may open a wave of electric cars in China, and Tesla will replace Apple’s “loading†in the circle of friends. Status, and this trend, will be part of the sales from the fuel vehicle market.
6, of course, the car's "installation era" may not be a big one, the field of electric vehicles has already been deployed by many Chinese players, whether it is Li Xiang's Wei Lai car, or Jia Yueting, I don't know if I can support Faraday. There is also a big wave of Wanxiang, Ranger, Lingyun and so on, and the rise of China's electric car companies. The market for electric vehicles will be colorful. But the very real problem, most of the electric cars in this part of the enterprise are only blueprints on the PPT, and the price is not as "approachable" as the Model 3, and it will not affect the Model 3 for the time being.
PS has so much data listed above, I can even use it to predict the sales of Model 3 in China (the variable part is estimated by 10%).
[2437.69*(1+0.15)*5%*10%+50*(1+0.65)*(60%*75%*10%+40%*75%*5%)]*(1+10%) = 208,800
This is my speculation that Model 3, if not limited to purchase and the total sales volume of China in 12 months after listing in 2017, is not allowed to wait for more than a year later, but Tesla is not allowed to jump into the habit. It is not until 2018, after 2019, we will tell us the answer. At that time, the market changed too much. The domestic car companies believed that they were also prepared. It is not necessarily the one who killed the deer, but this prediction can only be seen as a joke.
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