Analysis: Drivers of LED Lighting Market "Technology, Cost"

From technology to cost

LED is considered by the industry as the fourth generation ideal light source because of its excellent performance. LED light source is superior to traditional light sources such as incandescent lamp and fluorescent lamp in terms of luminous efficiency, service life, response time, and environmental protection. The luminous efficiency of LED has been increasing year by year and has reached the demand for general lighting applications.

According to Cree's latest results released in 2010, the luminous efficiency of its laboratory white LED has reached 200lm/w, commercial chips have reached 160lm/w, and it is planned to produce 200lm/w of LEDs in 2013. The luminous efficiency is 160lm/w. After about 50% loss from the light source to the lamp, the light output of the lamp reaches 80lm/w, which still exceeds the luminous efficiency of the current fluorescent lamp 60-80lm/w, and far exceeds the incandescent lamp 10 -15lm/w efficiency.

From light efficiency, LED lighting has reached the standard of replacing traditional light sources. Current commercial products have already demonstrated the advantages of LEDs in light efficiency. For example, LED light bulbs adopt a screw-type base design and can be directly used to replace traditional incandescent bulbs. No need to change existing lamp caps and lines, according to the size of the bayonet and the bulb Divided into E26 and E17 sizes, 4W LED bulbs can replace 25W incandescent bulbs, 6W LED bulbs can replace 40W incandescent bulbs, and 10W LED bulbs can replace 60W incandescent bulbs.

In terms of technology, the light efficiency of LED has reached the requirement of replacing the traditional light source. At present, the main factor restricting the rapid spread of LED lighting is its high cost. The main direction of LED lighting development in the future should not be the technical upgrading represented by lm/w, but the cost reduction represented by $/lm.

In addition to technology and costs, the active attitude of the governments of various countries and regions for energy conservation and emission reduction, and the plans to suspend production and disable incandescent lamps are important factors in promoting the replacement of LED lighting. Many developed countries plan to stop manufacturing and prohibiting the use of incandescent light bulbs around 2012. With its advantages in energy saving, emission reduction and environmental protection, LEDs are ideal for replacing incandescent lamps. Once the technology and costs are appropriate, it is expected to receive policies from various governments. On the strong support.

LED Lighting Investment Opportunities

By analyzing the replacement process of LED-to-fluorescent (CCFL) lamps in the field of TV backlighting, we can see that the LED backlighting CCFL backlighting has experienced the fastest decline in the price difference, which is the rapid rise time of the LED backlight penetration rate. LED lighting replaces the traditional fluorescent and incandescent lighting will repeat this process.

In the rapid decline in the price difference between LED lighting products and traditional lighting products, the penetration rate of LED lighting will rise rapidly. In the LED industry there is a law of Haitz proposed by Agilent's Roland Haitz, which is considered to be the Moore's Law of the LED industry. Since the commercialization of LEDs, the cost per lumen ($/lm) has dropped by about 20% per year, and from the data in recent years, the increase in brightness and the decrease in cost have accelerated.

According to the forecast of the US Department of Energy, the lumen cost of white LED packages will drop from 25$/klm in 2009 to 2$/klm in 2015, and the average annual cost will drop by more than 30%, while the average annual cost between 2010 and 2012 The decline is close to 40%. We believe that 2011-2012 will be the fastest time between LED and traditional lighting price spreads, and the LED lighting penetration rate will increase by leaps and bounds during this period. According to our calculations, LED lighting costs will be reduced to twice that of fluorescent lamps around $/lm in 2012. If the LED's lifetime relative to fluorescent lamps is about 2.5 times, the LED lighting will be around 2012. The total cost of lead leads to fluorescent lighting.

Therefore, we believe that the large-scale substitution of LED lighting will start in late 2011 and early 2012, and 2011-2012 will be an important investment point for the LED lighting industry.

Currently, traditional lighting includes fluorescent lamps, incandescent lamps, halogen lamps, and HIDs, each accounting for 36%, 23%, 16%, and 13% of general lighting revenue. With incandescent lamps banned in various countries, replacement of incandescent lamps with fluorescent lamps, replacement of incandescent lamps with LED lamps, and fluorescent lamps will be synchronized. As commercial/industrial companies are more sensitive to the cost of electricity charges, and the government is increasingly strict with the requirements for energy saving and emission reduction of enterprises, the commercial/industrial sector is more active in the use of energy-saving lighting products.

This process will also be repeated for LED light source replacement. The replacement of LED lighting products will first take place in commercial/industrial areas. After a good demonstration role, LED lighting products will gradually be popularized in the field of household lighting.