Some experts predict that according to the suggestion of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the issuance of LTE FDD licenses will not be put on the agenda until at least the middle of next year, which means that China Unicom and China Telecom will continue to stumble in the next six months.
China Mobile 4G has been unstoppable
In the past year, China Mobile has made full use of the 4G window period to accelerate the pace of network construction and customer development. According to publicly released data, China Mobile has built 700,000 4G base stations, and the number of 4G users exceeded 8,000 at the end of November. Million, and the number of users in recent months has shown signs of acceleration. According to the current rate of development, by the middle of next year, the number of 4G users of China Mobile will exceed 150 million, which is likely to reach 200 million.
What does China Mobile's 4G subscriber number exceed 200 million? With the current total of 800 million Chinese mobile subscribers, 200 million will account for 25% of the total number of subscribers. This is a sign that a mobile operator's customers have completely passed the lead-in period and entered a rapid growth period, and the growth trend will be overwhelming.
According to media calculations, domestic mobile subscribers grew by 4.272 million in November 2014, of which subscribers from China Mobile accounted for 56%. This share actually has a gap with China Mobile's overall market share, but it is a relatively high proportion in recent years. Of course, this data analysis is still doubtful, but it can basically reflect that China Mobile has recovered its vitality caused by 3G.
Reversal of development trend, Unicom Telecom customers will accelerate the loss
If 4G licenses continue to be delayed, China Mobile’s 4G customers’ original accumulation tends to be completed, 4G networks are increasingly perfected, and 4G related services such as converged communications and VoLTE are also regularly launched. China Mobile will have a complete competitive advantage. Completely complete flow of business innovation, or to achieve free voice of the industry war, have full strength and confidence.
In the 3G era, China Mobile was severely hit by the problems of the Internet and terminals. In particular, some high-end business users were lost because of China Unicom’s “C+W+186†strategy. China Telecom also used its advantage in the government-enterprise market to excavate angles. Therefore, the impact on China Mobile's mid-to-high-end users is huge. Not only is the loss of key customers increased, but it also drove the reduction of China Mobile's ARPU. After the arrival of 4G, everything has changed. China Mobile’s previous disadvantages have become an advantage. Market competition has reversed. Flow wars, terminal wars, and price wars can all be handled by China Mobile.
In the first half of 2014, China Telecom suffered a net loss of users for several months, and China Unicom also experienced a low number of subscribers in multiple months of development. It only took a new marketing policy in the second half of the year to stabilize the situation. Of course, there is also the government confidence in the customer's confidence brought about by the LTE FDD Converged Networking license. However, it is hard to say how long it will take for such a situation to persist. With the arrival of the new year's Spring Festival marketing season, China Telecom and China Unicom are likely to usher in major operational difficulties.
Now, China Mobile's 4G subscriber growth is still mainly from endogenous forces, that is, the smooth migration of China Mobile's own 2G users and 3G subscribers. The next step is bound to cause great attraction to China Unicom and China Telecom's mid-to-high-end customers. Power, and once China Mobile's 4G users are mainly from mid-to-high-end customers of competitors, the balance of the Chinese communications industry will be seriously tilted.
LTE FDD licence banned, Unicom Telecom is difficult to support
In contrast, China Unicom and China Telecom have been treating LTE FDD as a life-saving straw for a year, and they have constantly called for licensing, but they have missed the strategic opportunity to follow closely on TD-LTE. Even if there are many technical and financial reasons, it cannot hide the reality of failure in strategic decisions.
Although the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has already issued the license for the LTE FDD Converged Network, Unicom and Telecom are also expanding the scope of pilot cities, and the three Chinese operators have also become accustomed to using the unspoken rules under the regulatory vacuum, but they are still not exactly correct. Shun, the biggest trouble is that the terminal manufacturers and equipment manufacturers are in dilemma, making the entire industry chain lose confidence.
The delay in issuing the second 4G license plate has also been a blow to the morale of the staff of China Unicom and China Telecom. The cohesiveness of the company has been lost. The long-term situation is bound to make the future of the two operators even more bleak.
Delayed license may hide behind the reorganization
For a long period of time, China's regulatory authorities have been devoting themselves to a more balanced communication market, and even hesitate to adopt asymmetric controls. However, it is an abnormal situation in the development of 4G. Is there a huge variable behind this?
Assuming that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology postpones the issuance of LTE FDD licenses for one year, it will inevitably cause China Mobile to become the dominant player in the 4G era, while China Unicom and China Telecom will not be able to compete with China Mobile. This outcome is clearly not the government’s competent authority. Hope to see.
Then the question arises. If the government authorities do not want to see that China Mobile is dominant, but it has created more outshoneness in its policies, will it carry out human intervention or even structural restructuring at an appropriate time? We think that this is possible!
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