Since 2011, we have been presenting the conjecture with the first edition of the New Year. In 4 years, numerous guesses have been made that both feet have landed, and there are occasional boots hanging in the air, and more guesses have skyrocketed. What is more amazing than the imagination that the Internet has given us? The next step is how the Internet will cross the border, whether the tide of overseas listings can continue, and the rural Internet contains many business opportunities. The conjecture stems from the observance of the technological trajectory and the respect of the industry laws, but also from demand and eagerness. It is hoped that the network will be able to establish laws and regulations at a faster speed and 4G coverage will be faster. It is hoped that the network will bring sunshine government and entrepreneurial opportunities...
The energy of the Internet is not in the thriving nature of an industry. It is like a fresh sun that shines in every corner of human life.
In addition to many conjectures, there is a judgment that the form of the network will continue to run through all aspects of things. The manifestation of miracles and the creation of miracles are expressions of the new energy of the Internet, which gives the possibility of conjecture infinity. Guess and dream twins, dreams and reality.
The Internet age is suitable for speculation.
--editor
Conjecture 1
Media integration into a comprehensive "melting" era?
In the early stage of media integration, "cohesion" was the main force, and the stickiness was still insufficient. After more than a year of exploration, the trend of "melting" has become even more obvious. But how to find the best breakthrough is still the most pressing task in 2015
In 2014, media convergence became a consensus in the industry. Whether it is the organizational structure, operating mode, or reporting style, news media are undergoing significant changes under the impact of new technologies and new concepts. In the early stage of media integration, "cohesion" was the main force, and the stickiness was still insufficient. After more than a year of exploration, the trend of "melting" has become even more obvious. But how to find the best breakthrough is still the most urgent task in 2015.
In 2015, media integration will shift from a formal "combination" stage to an all-round "combination" era. The forces of the new media will undoubtedly grow further. However, it is still unknown whether the argument for the demise of traditional media will become a reality. The combination of new and old, long and short, is the preferred path for media integration. The news production process will be more active, more informative, and the media will interact more smoothly with the audience. At the same time, changes in the form of media organization and operations still face the collision of old and new concepts. It can be imagined that this is the biggest aspect of the media integration process.
The pace of media integration will continue to accelerate, but judging from the current situation, deeper integration may take time. However, with the balance between the past and the past, the old and new media should have such a consensus: no one should look down on the other side, and do not value themselves too much. Because the essence of media integration is not a new alternative to the old one, it is a symbiosis and co-prosperity. The curtain has been opened and the future is worth looking forward to.
Conjecture 2
Speed ​​up the process of the rule of law in cyberspace?
In the first year of comprehensively advancing the rule of law, the legislation in the Internet sector will be further accelerated, and a number of high-level, highly operational, and instructive laws and regulations or judicial interpretations will be introduced.
In 2014, the process of the legalization of cyberspace accelerated. The “Net Net 2014â€, “Jian Wang 2014†and mobile instant messaging tool governance and other series of special operations focused on outstanding issues on the Internet, promoted special governance, and the Internet community’s ecological landscape was clearly improving, and the cyberspace became clearer.
At the Fourth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, the "Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Several Major Issues Concerning the Fully Ruling the Country According to Law" was put forward to strengthen legislation in the Internet field. In 2015, in the first year of comprehensively advancing the rule of law, the legislation in the Internet sector will be further accelerated, and a number of highly hierarchical, highly operational, and instructive laws and regulations or judicial interpretations will be successively introduced. It includes both national laws and local regulations.
In recent years, the Supreme Law and the Supreme People's Procuratorate have issued four judicial interpretations of cyberspace violations, strengthened the legal relationship between the real space and cyberspace, and provided more explicit guidance for law enforcement officers in law enforcement.
In 2015, this trend will continue. The "Network Security Law", "Electronic Commerce Law" and "Minors Internet Protection Regulations" drafted by the Legal Affairs Commission of the National People's Congress Standing Committee and the Network Information Office led drafts of the first draft, the newly revised Internet News Information Service. "Regulations" will be introduced in the near future. A number of laws and regulations concerning Internet information security, emerging media management, protection of citizens’ privacy, and cracking down on online transaction fraud will also be put on the agenda one after another. The new normal state of cyberspace legalization is expected to form in 2015.
Conjecture 3
Network Information Security Accelerates Top-Level Design?
At the national level, research and development of cyber security strategies are underway, and relevant agencies are also speeding up cybersecurity legislation. Can network security legislation make substantial progress and it is worth looking forward to
In 2014, the issue of network information security presented an unprecedented severe situation. 14 million users of express delivery data were stolen, 1.3 million graduate students were leaked information, "Heart bleeding" and "VIP dog" and other serious loopholes broke out ... ... In 2015, the network information security situation is equally not optimistic. Especially with the rapid development of the mobile Internet, mobile device vulnerabilities may become an important route of infection. With the advent of the smart and wearable devices, it may also pose a serious IoT security threat.
How to avoid renewed information leakage and how to avoid the security risks caused by loopholes have become an urgent and realistic proposition. After the establishment of the Central Cyber ​​Security and Informationization Leading Group, China has done a lot of work in network security. At the national level, research and development of cyber security strategies are underway, and relevant agencies are also speeding up cybersecurity legislation. Whether the national strategy for cyber security can be promulgated and whether the cyber security legislation can make substantial progress is worth looking forward to.
2015 will be the year when the information security policy will be centralized. The provincial network information office will complete the construction and implement the national information security policy. The Central Network Information Office and various industry authorities will either launch industry policies or accelerate the domestic substitution process in the field of information security.
Conjecture 4
4G crosses the popular barrier?
Compared with 2G and 3G, the rapid growth of 4G has appeared since the beginning of development. In 2015, the trend of 4G users continuing to soar
In the past year, China Mobile led 4G and showed a booming trend. This year's development is equivalent to the construction volume of 3G6 years and 2G20 years. The base stations built in one year account for 40% of the world's total, covering more than 300 cities at or above the county level, claiming to have reached 80 million customers.
Recently, China Unicom announced 100 million 4G mobile phone sales plans in 2015. China Mobile also announced its 4G terminal new deal, which will sell 200 million 4G terminals this year. China Telecom announced an investment of 16 billion yuan to build 100 high-quality 4G mobile phones for consumers, driving sales of smartphones to exceed 100 million units throughout the year. In 2015, the rapid and explosive growth of 4G users has now begun.
In South Korea, Sweden and other small and medium-sized countries, 4G has become popular. Perfect coverage, excellent service, cheaper prices and large-scale mutual promotion, but also mutual constraints. From the beginning of 2009 to the end of 2013, it belongs to the development window period of 3G. However, until that time, the number of 2G users in China is still far more than 3G users. On the way to 4G universal access, issues such as high fees, replacement of equipment, and service coverage can all become roadblocks. It may be a solution for businesses to abandon their pursuit of high returns and give full play to the decisive role of the market.
Conjecture 5
Mobile Internet competition is still fierce?
O2O may usher in a hundred flowers, localization, socialization and unbounded business will become its new direction.
Mobile search grows steadily, mobile social networking or will enter the video era
In 2015, mobile internet will still be the most competitive and most concentrated area of ​​innovation in the Internet industry.
Five times as many new wireless network standards are expected to be introduced, and multi-platform architectures will become mainstream. The fifth-generation hypertext markup language may gain more developers' favor and network equipment support.
Mobile e-commerce companies will not only purchase “substances†anytime, anywhere, but O2O (combination of online and offline) may also usher in hundreds of flowers. Mobile e-commerce may extend from ordinary physical e-commerce to personal service e-commerce. Innovative O2O consumption patterns such as beating cars, beaver families and kung fu bears continue to emerge. Localization, socialization, and unbounded operations may become O2O's new direction of development. Sharing videos on mobile devices or will become a trend, mobile social networking will be more realistic.
The mobile search market will grow steadily. In the third quarter of last year, Baidu Mobile search surpassed the personal computer terminals for the first time, and it is not long before mobile search achieves permanent search beyond personal computers. New search methods such as voice search and image search and location-based services will become new competition points. Multi-screen mobile advertising from TVs, computers and mobile devices will become mainstream. More accurate location-based mobile advertising may bring more changes.
Conjecture 6
Internet companies continue to invest overseas?
Break through the four major obstacles of culture, society, trade, and language. While exporting products and capital, explore and solve the development problems that have been plagued by problems for a long time.
In 2014, it was said that China's Internet companies have gone out of the harvest year: companies have pooled overseas listings; Alibaba’s listing in the United States has also refreshed the IPO record of US stocks; the overseas markets of products have repeatedly won, and the number of Weixin overseas subscribers has exceeded 200 million. Mobile active overseas users exceeded 190 million; overseas investment and mergers and acquisitions are frequent. Alibaba’s US$215 million shares are used in the US chat application Tango, and Baidu’s purchase of Peixe Urbano, Brazil’s largest group purchase site.
In 2015, the upsurge in the overseas listing of Chinese Internet companies may cool down, but many companies will continue to embark on overseas listings. China's Internet companies may continue to heat up overseas investment in mergers and acquisitions. "BAT" BAT (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent), overseas investment in the layout will enter a new phase of generous, grand strategy. At the same time, some products that duplicated the Chinese model began to flare up overseas.
In 2015, it is worth looking forward to whether China’s Internet model can achieve reverse export overseas and win the eyes of more overseas users and investors.
Chinese Internet companies need to overcome difficulties to solve the long-overdue problems of overseas development. How to break through the four major obstacles of culture, society, trade, and language, expand the scale of overseas markets, enhance the influence of overseas markets, and truly usher in qualitative changes is a severe test placed on every Chinese Internet company.
Guess 7
A breakthrough in cross-border cooperation in the Internet?
Cross-border cooperation between the Internet and financial, fitness, and education industries has made breakthroughs in the New Year and may open up new blue oceans.
The dispute over a car-launching software that was heavily subsidized by Internet companies completely changed the taxi operating model in big cities. With the refinement and mutual overlap of several major Internet giants' industrial layouts, the story of the rapid promotion of new business models in similar fields may recur in the future.
In the financial field, Yu Yingbao’s catfish effect has not only enabled Internet users who love shopping to experiment with Internet finance first, but also made many ordinary people discover that “finance is not complicatedâ€.
The P2P (peer-to-peer) network borrowing model began to rise, but it also encountered some risk problems. In the new year, with the booming of the stock market, financial management has regained the public's attention, and the cross-border cooperation with the Internet has ushered in a new opportunity. The P2P network borrowing model is also expected to achieve leapfrog development after market regulation.
In the past year, many foreign companies represented by Apple and domestic millet have released smart hardware such as watches and wristbands, which are in line with the public’s increasing emphasis on physical health and changes in daily exercise patterns, and the cross-border cooperation between the Internet and sports and fitness. First appeared. However, this requires lighter and more efficient hardware support, as well as the development of more application scenarios beyond basic functions such as step counting, sleep monitoring, and calorie calculations.
Mobile Internet is realizing medical consultation services and registration functions, and the new prospects for Internet medical care are constantly being expanded. Internet education is also on the eve of an eruption, requiring only a more powerful tipping point.
Conjecture 8
Internet entrepreneurship bred a new legend?
The cross-border integration of traditional industries and mobile new media has stimulated entrepreneurial interest, and Internet entrepreneurship will re-emerge
At the beginning of the 2015 new year, a large screen that provides entrepreneurs with many free display features will light up at the south entrance of Zhongguancun Venture Street.
As China's most dynamic entrepreneurial center, Zhongguancun is emerging as a group of post-90 Internet entrepreneurs who have become entrepreneurs with their unfettered imagination and their inherent understanding of the mobile Internet. This wave will burst out of Zhongguancun and out of Beijing in the new year.
In 2014, vertical media continued its efforts on new media and mobile Internet platforms. A series of personalized entrepreneurial applications may trigger a continuous technological transformation campaign. The micro-business micro-store model has attracted a large number of entrepreneurs. The cross-border integration of traditional industries and mobile new media has also inspired a group of young people with strong entrepreneurial interests. A new wave of Internet entrepreneurship boom may have arrived.
At the same time, along with the reopening of Internet companies’ listing windows and the successful demonstration of companies like Xiaomi, in the Internet and related fields, the resignation of corporate executives and the start-up of Internet practitioners will once again become more popular in 2015. Compared with the new generation, they have a deeper understanding of business logic and corporate governance and have a greater chance of success. The changes that the old and new entrepreneurs will bring to the Chinese Internet are worth looking forward to.
Guess 9
Rural Internet has become a new growth point?
Rural areas are the new blue ocean for the development of the Internet. The Internet will become a new growth point in rural areas, and telecom operators and terminal manufacturers are promising.
In 2015, the Internet will become a new economic growth point for the vast rural market. Telecom operators and terminal manufacturers will taste the first cup. At the same time, e-commerce further deepens into rural areas, where aquaculture, planting, and e-commerce are more closely integrated. Rural native products pay more attention to e-commerce channels and the mode of publication is more personalized.
Unlike the rapid growth in the cities that have been maintained in the past, the growth of rural smart phones this year may be a new bright spot. The survey shows that more than 40% of rural respondents believe that it is important to “connect with the Internet anytime, anywhereâ€. The mobile phone has become the mainstream Internet terminal for rural users, and it has also become an important force for the development of rural Internet.
In the relatively blank market of rural areas, there will be a huge market space for all links of the industry chain such as telecom operators and terminal manufacturers. For handset software vendors, the applications for living, learning, production, and business in rural areas are undoubtedly also applicable. A big new cake.
At the same time, with the popularization of rural Internet and mobile terminals entering the rural market, mobile internet and traditional e-commerce will change the rural business model and change the social and economic development in rural areas. “E-Commerce Village†will emerge in an endless stream. In more typical e-commerce villages, there are tens of thousands of Taobao stores and migrant workers on tens of thousands of industrial chains will not be new.
The popularity of the Internet in rural areas will also provide new ideas for exploring new models of rural management.
Conjecture 10
New government media continues the O2O model?
In 2015, the government agencies ushered in the new trend of smart self-service, and the government’s network image and dominance will be further reshaped.
In 2015, the government's new media O2O (online, offline, and online) development model is mainly reflected in two aspects: online communication and offline service. On the one hand, on-line public opinion is well-guided, on the one hand to solve practical problems under the net, or through the convenience of the Internet to solve the problem of difficult offline services.
In the Internet era, "government-run media" has become a trend, with government websites ranging from 1.0 to 2.0 to 3.0. For instance, the opening of the website of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection’s Ministry of Supervision has turned disorderly online reporting into an institutionalized channel, making it the hottest spot in 2014. In 2014, Sina’s government microblog reached 120,000, Tencent government microblog reached 180,000, and the government’s WeChat public account reached 60,000 at the end of 2014.
In 2015, with the increasing influence of various types of government and Wechat and the opening of an online government affairs platform, government agencies have ushered in a new trend of smart self-service. The government agencies will continue to “test water†various new media platforms, strengthen public service and exchanges, shorten the distance with the public, and make information transmission more accurate, public services and practical matters more brilliant. The government's network image and dominance will be further reshaped.
Recommended installation sofa butler, download address: http://app.shafa.com/
