Semiconductors encounter where the cold winter life

In the March earthquake in Japan, semiconductor manufacturers suffered losses, semiconductor industry output declined, global demand was suppressed, but as the impact of the earthquake waned, the semiconductor industry did not recover, but continued to suffer from the European debt crisis (December 2009, Greece The initial impact, followed by debt crisis in countries such as Portugal, Italy and Spain, continued to decline.

WSTS statistics: In August 2011, the growth rate of global semiconductor sales continued to decline, with shipments amounting to US$24.22 billion, which was a decrease of 4.4% from the same period of the previous year, as compared to 25.2 billion US dollars in global semiconductor product shipments in August 2010. The year-on-year sales growth rate fell 0.6% compared with the growth rate of -3.8% in July. Investment in the industry has shown a significant downward trend, and international and domestic manufacturers are looking at the situation this year.

SEMI Statistical Report: In August 2011, the North American semiconductor equipment order shipment ratio (BB) continued to decline. According to the three-month moving average statistics, in August, orders for semiconductor equipment manufacturers in North America were 1.18 billion U.S. dollars, and the volume of shipments was 1.48 billion U.S. dollars, and the order-to-ship ratio was 0.80. In August 2011, the figure was 1.18 billion U.S. dollars, which was the same as the previous year. Declined by 34.8%, a decrease of 8.8% from the previous month, and shipment volume of US$1.48 billion fell by 5.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 3.0% from the previous month. Due to the significant decline in orders, the value of BB semiconductor equipment in North America continued to drop to 0.80, and semiconductor manufacturers’ investment dropped sharply, and the industry’s boom was at a low level.

SEAJ statistical data: In August 2011, the semiconductor equipment orders in Japan amounted to 83.20 billion yen, down 34.7% year-on-year. In August 2011, the semiconductor equipment shipments in Japan were 109.96 billion yen, an increase of 18.9% year-on-year, and the August BB value was 0.76. Compared with the July BB value of 0.96, the decline was significant.

At the same time, according to the September sales data of Taiwan’s electronic listed companies. In September, Taiwan’s electronics industry’s overall revenue decreased by 8.77% year-on-year. Specifically, sales in September increased by more than 10% year-on-year, including mobile phone manufacturing, optical lenses, NB and mobile phone components, while DRAM manufacturing, display, solar energy, notebooks, TFT, and IC foundry fell by more than 10%.

However, Jim Feldhan, president of Semico Research, a market research institution, is still optimistic about semiconductors. A speech delivered in a forum pointed out that the recession is only a transient phenomenon and is expected to reach the bottom in February 2012. Feldhan pointed out that looking at the deterioration of the macroeconomic situation and the decline of consumer spending, the semiconductor industry supply chain began to brake and consume inventories, and the pace of business development slowed down. It is expected that the overall industry's capacity utilization rate will start at the end of this year from the beginning of the year. As above, it will reach 80%. According to the forecast of the economic model of the Inflection Point Index of Semico Research, the current industry recession will bottom out in February 2012.

In the current weak demand, low-end products will probably become the main body of Christmas consumption. This will give Chinese terminal companies and component companies a good opportunity to increase market share and develop quality customers.