Crazy speculation OLED deep Tianma cumulative increase of up to 20% in three days

Since September 1st, the stock price of Shentianma A (000050.SZ) has continued to rise. As of September 3, the cumulative increase has reached 20%.

The reporter learned from many sources that it is the crazy hype of OLED behind the rise of Shenzhen Tianma. Several major brokers in Shanghai have locked Shen Tianma as a key target and are closely monitoring the progress of the project.

And its OLED project has considerable controversy in the industry, what is its prospect?

Controversial OLED

On August 13, Shen Tianma disclosed in its 2010 semi-annual report that Shanghai Tianma, a holding subsidiary of Shenzhen Tianma, plans to invest in a 4.5-generation AM-OLED pilot line with a total investment of approximately 492 million yuan. The project's funding source is Shanghai Tianma's self-raising and application for government funding, of which 210 million yuan is self-raised and 282 million yuan is applied for government funding.

In August this year, the company announced that its holding subsidiary Shanghai Tianma plans to invest in the construction of a 4.5-generation AM-OLED pilot line with a monthly output of 250,000 pieces. The total investment of the project is about 492 million yuan.

OLED, also known as organic electroluminescent display or organic light-emitting diode, is considered to be the direction of next-generation flat panel display. It features lower power consumption, thinner weight, lighter weight and better display response performance.

Next to Apple's IPONE smartphone, the Samsung i9000 uses a super OLED display. In the display effect, the power consumption cover is significantly better than the mainstream TFT display in the market.

"They are forward-looking investments, which is the direction of the next step." An industry insider told reporters that "the prospects are good, but it depends on the results of the pilot test."

"Shanghai Tianma's OLED production line is still experimental, can not be mass-produced, and there is still a long way to go from industrialization." A senior industry insider familiar with Shen Tianma told reporters.

The voice of controversy comes along.

Many industry experts believe that OLED's yield is not high, raw material prices remain high, and its performance is not much better than the new generation of TFT (low temperature polysilicon). The reality is that many Japanese manufacturers have already withdrawn from the technical route. It is an adventurous behavior to invest in the AM-OLED pilot line.

“There is a lot of controversy, just like the industry’s controversy over plasma and TFT five years ago,” said senior industry insiders.

Today, five years later, plasma TVs are rare, and the technological advances of TFTs have finally made it impossible for investors to invest heavily in plasma. The risk of the flat panel display industry is frightening.

"Good products may not be recognized by the market." And the dispute over the technical route will eventually return to the demand side to make a final decision.

It is understood that the current OLED can be recognized by the industry is very obvious, such as the response speed can reach 0.01MS, the contrast can reach 10000:1, and the TFT data is 2MS, 500:1, in terms of power consumption, the same size OLED display The screen is 60% of the traditional TFT display, and the OLED can even be bent.

However, the defects of OLED are still obvious: the yield is low and the price of upstream raw materials is high.

Japanese manufacturers that had entered mass production have already withdrawn, and now only Samsung Electronics has the capacity of AM-OLED. Sony has launched a 10-inch AM-OLED color TV that sells for two thousand dollars, but the market is not optimistic.

What is the organization optimistic?

In the midst of controversy in the industry, institutional investors have already settled in.

On September 1st, the return on the transaction of Shenzhen Tianma A's share price showed that the two institutions used to buy a total of 39 million yuan, and two institutional seats sold 21 million yuan. Although there is controversy between the institutions, the net purchase of funds is presented. Into the state.

The company's semi-annual report shows that Yinhua advantage (180001, fund bar) growth, Jingfu, Jingshun Great Wall optimization (260101, fund bar), Haifutong revenue growth (519003, fund bar), Dacheng industry rotation and many other funds Jiancang Shentianma, the agency's total position accounted for 32% of the outstanding shares.

"They are mainly optimistic about the strategic advantage of Shenzhen Tianma in the small and medium size display field. Before 2012, OLED could not contribute profits, but a project to burn money." A securities brokerage analyst in Shanghai told reporters.

Chen Gang, an analyst of Dongfang Securities Electronics Industry, pointed out in the research report that "the current production cost of a 3.7-inch OLED is about 50 yuan, and the price is more than 200 yuan. Even if the price is reduced by half in 2012, there will be a gross profit margin of more than 50%. The volume of OLEDs will drive the growth of the company's profits more effectively."

The industry expects that even if Shanghai Tianma's OLED production line is successful, it will not be mass-produced until the second half of 2011. At this time, it is the concentration of projects built by many domestic and foreign manufacturers.

"This is a very risky but capital-intensive industry. The purpose of the deep-day 4.5-generation OLED test line is to master relevant technologies and processes." The senior industry insider familiar with Shen Tianma told reporters.

As everyone knows, Shanghai is at a disadvantage in the development of the flat panel industry. The industry speculated that Shanghai intends to support the Shentianma test water OLED project, salted fish turned over. “The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and Shanghai will give preferential measures to all parties and various methods.” The senior person said.

"The development of the company's AM-OLED is basically synchronized with the world's advanced level. Compared with international rival companies, it has the advantages of cost and delivery time. Compared with domestic rival companies, it has the advantages of LTPS technology and 4.5 generation line resources." .

For a long time, China's development in the field of flat panel display has been in a state of catching up. From CRT to LCD, it has been industrialized by relying on technology introduction. Due to the lack of core key technology reserves and cutting-edge innovation technology development, development has lagged behind abroad.

The industry believes that the strategic purpose of Shentianma's Shanghai Tianma OLED test line is to master relevant technologies and processes, and to promote the localization of materials, and ultimately to build a large-scale AM-OLED production line with international advanced level.

However, the strategic deployment of the industry does not resolve the risk of overvaluation of stock prices. According to estimates by Dongfang Securities Chen Gang, even if Shanghai Tianma is 100% consolidated, the earnings per share of Shenzhen Tianma in 2010, 2011 and 2012 are 0.18 yuan and 0.38 yuan respectively. 0.84 yuan. Excluding the unpredictable 2012 results, the dynamic P/E ratio in 2011 has reached 28 times.

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