There is no minimum, only lower. In the first week of November, the domestic polysilicon market continued its downward trend. Market data shows that as of November 3, the domestic market price is quoting between RMB 20,000 and RMB 2/ton, which is a further drop of RMB 10,000/ton from the end of October, and part of the transaction price has dropped below RMB 200,000.
In spite of this, for domestic PV companies, which occupy 90% of the global market for wafers and components and face a crisis of survival, this does not seem to have much appeal. The lower cost and better quality eventually led them to tilt toward the overseas market in the context of double increase in domestic polysilicon production and production capacity and an increase in inventories.
According to the latest customs statistics, since the beginning of July, China’s polysilicon import volume has hit a new high in March, reaching 6,489 tons in September alone and 16 tons more than in August. The previous August data has just reached the highest record of 6,153 tons since November 2010. From the same period of last year, the import volume of polysilicon also continuously increased by more than 40% during the same period. The largest year-on-year ratio was 71.6% and the minimum was 41%. As a result, as of the first three quarters of China's cumulative import of polysilicon reached 48,500 tons, already more than last year's total imports of about 45,000 tons.
For the domestic photovoltaic industry, which started late, it is not surprising that polysilicon has long relied on imports. With the growth of the domestic polysilicon industry, its dependence on imports has gradually declined, but since 2011, the deteriorating market trend has made the already somewhat eased import dependence rise quietly. Different from the loss of the market because of the limitation of output, the effect of “inflow of foreign polysilicon and production of domestic polysilicon†caused by the shrinking of terminal demand is creating a new supply and demand cycle for domestic photovoltaic “two ends outâ€.
Imported fierce first three quarters
"From the current situation, this year's import dependency is likely to rise back to about 60%." A polysilicon industry in Sichuan said so. According to him, the domestic polysilicon import volume once exceeded 80% in 2008, and has gradually dropped to 50% in the following two years. According to the forecast at the beginning of the year, it may be further reduced to 40% this year, thus to a certain extent, to get rid of foreign markets for domestic photovoltaic upstream raw materials. control.
Obviously, contrary to what was expected, the polysilicon market, which entered the period of sluggish demand from the second quarter, has repeatedly shocked the continuous increase in actual import data. Only half a year later, its cumulative imports have exceeded the expected data for the full year. Before this, the market had expected that the domestic polysilicon production this year will be about 70,000 tons. According to the 40% dependence, the total import volume will be about 47,000 tons.
According to customs data, in the first half of 2011, the import volume of polysilicon increased at first and then decreased. Among them, affected by the start of domestic polysilicon companies in January, the import volume was once as high as 5512 tons. In February, it gradually fell to 3,316 tons under the gradual recovery of the domestic market. However, with the cooling demand in the downstream of March, the volume of imports rose again. To 5921 tons, the ring increased by 78.56%. In the following three months, the import volume began to decline slightly. In April, May and June, it was 5,664 tons, 5,273 tons and 4,692 tons respectively.
July entering the third quarter is undoubtedly the month of import turnover this year. Polysilicon imports rose to 5,191 tons this month, a year-on-year increase of 41%, and an increase of 10.62% over the previous period. In the following August, imports increased steeply to 6,473 tons, an increase of 71.6% year-on-year, and an increase of 24.7% from the previous quarter. In September, another record high was that while imports of polysilicon reached an annual peak of 6,489 tons, its cumulative import volume also exceeded 48,500 tons, which already exceeded the full-year forecast.
The European and American markets are still the main markets for domestic polysilicon imports. The total import volume of the United States and Germany has accounted for about 40% of the total imports for a long time. According to customs data, in the third quarter, imports of polysilicon from the United States and Germany reached 4,139 tons and 3,408 tons, respectively, which accounted for 22.8% and 18.77% of the total import volume in the current quarter.
At the same time, it is worth noting that since June, domestic imports from South Korea have also suddenly increased, and they quickly surpassed Europe and the United States. Imports data for July showed that South Korea's imports of polycrystalline silicon reached 2,054 tons, far higher than the United States and Germany that ranked second in the list. The latter had only 1,320 tons and 720 tons respectively. In August, the German market rebounded, but in absolute terms, South Korea has already replaced the United States in ranking first. In the same month, China imported 2,521 tons of polysilicon from South Korea, 1,401 tons from the United States, and 1,249 tons from Germany, which were 22.7%, 4.6%, and 73.4% higher than the previous month.
According to industry sources, the Korean polysilicon industry started relatively late, but after nearly two years of technology digestion and production capacity increase, the overall output has increased significantly, so its international market share will gradually replace the traditional European and American countries.
Overseas large companies "prices together"
However, the reason that the import volume of polycrystalline silicon increased month by month in the third quarter is still closely related to the excess capacity of foreign polysilicon under the market demand that Europe and the United States continue to shrink.
It is understood that in 2011, the debt crisis in Europe continued to deteriorate, and Europe and the United States, which occupy the main market of photovoltaic terminals, did not finally usher in the improvement in demand. This has led to global polysilicon production capacity in the upcoming production of the current year and next year have to fall into the trap of overcapacity. As a major consumer market for polysilicon, China has also become a place where foreign giants hope to open their markets. In spite of the fact that domestic stocks have increased in the mid-to-downstream of the PV market and companies have reduced production or stopped production, the demand in the domestic market has remained at a relatively high level due to the expansion of production capacity of large enterprises and the increase in the investment of some large-scale PV companies.
Compared with domestic polysilicon enterprises, the competitiveness of foreign polysilicon companies is undoubtedly reflected in the product's cost and quality. This naturally becomes the killer for many leading polysilicon companies. By continuously reducing market prices and curtailing profit margins, companies that have relatively high domestic costs are slashing prices, and ultimately cut production or stop production. The markets that originally belonged to domestic polysilicon companies were thus filled by imported polysilicon.
“The number of domestic companies that can compete with imported polysilicon costs is not much, and the quality is also slightly better, so it is difficult to compete.†The aforementioned polysilicon industry believes that the current domestic demand for polysilicon is in short supply, but due to vicious competition Actual output is already insufficient. Can be corroborated is that the customs data in the previous September also shows that it is in the third quarter of continuous decline in the price of polysilicon, including the German WACKER, including European and American polysilicon manufacturers to China's exports increased significantly.
However, at the same time, for overseas polysilicon manufacturers, their profit margins have also been reduced. WACKER's financial report in the third quarter shows that although sales of Asian customers have increased significantly, the profit before tax depreciation and amortization of solar grade polysilicon in the third quarter still fell by 6% compared with the same period of last year, with a profit margin of 47.4% in the quarter. It also fell 6.9% from the same period of last year. The Korean polysilicon manufacturer OCI, which has been the top three in terms of domestic imports, also experienced a rapid decline in revenue and profit margins in the third quarter of 2011. According to the company, its revenue from the polysilicon sector fell from 572 billion won in the second quarter to 395 billion won in the third quarter. The profit rate also fell from 50% in the second quarter to 36% in the third quarter.
Global expansion of production capacity
In the current situation of weak terminal demand, whether it can alleviate the “two out†market predicament caused by the surge in domestic polysilicon imports, we still need to look forward to the upcoming 2012 polysilicon market structure. Due to the large space for integration of the domestic polysilicon market, only when the oligopoly situation with several large polysilicon manufacturers abroad is established, the degree of domestic import dependence will be eased.
“The shipping radius is the largest advantage for domestic polysilicon companies. Therefore, as long as the production cost is slightly increased, it will replace imported goods. This is also the reason that South Korea's imports in the past six months are higher than those in Europe and the United States.†The aforementioned sources believe that through integration, Domestic large-scale polysilicon companies have great competitive advantages and can compete with overseas giants. It can be seen that, in the first nine months of this year, domestic exports of polysilicon also increased month by month. Although small, it is enough to prove its competitiveness.
It is worth noting that with the development of the photovoltaic industry, the seven overseas giants of crystalline silicon that had once mastered more than 80% of the world's polysilicon market - the United States Hemlock, MEMC, Japan Mitsubishi, Sumitomo, Tokuyama, Germany Wacker, Norway REC situation has been Changes are taking place. Up to now, due to the substantial expansion of production capacity and utilization rate of South Korea's OCI and GCL, the polysilicon market in 2011 has been replaced by Hemlock, Wacker, OCI, and GCL's most influential people. Nowadays, it is called the "four diamonds" of solar polysilicon.
However, the polysilicon market in 2012 is facing more rapid expansion of polysilicon production at home and abroad. According to data from professional agencies, with the addition of production capacity of new giants abroad, foreign polysilicon production capacity will increase by 54.8% on 2012 basis to reach 238,900 tons, while domestic polysilicon production capacity will increase by 170.75% to reach 10.37 million. Ton. It is worth noting that part of the production capacity has been gradually released in the second half of 2011. This also led to the current situation of polysilicon prices continue to fall.
Obviously, in the absence of downstream demand, and the expansion of upstream production capacity, the international polysilicon price will continue to face a downward trend, which will obviously reverse the domestic polysilicon import trend. What domestic polysilicon companies can expect is that, apart from improving cost control capabilities, only the recovery of terminal demand and the pace of expansion of overseas polysilicon manufacturers will slow down.
Perhaps fortunately, at present, some overseas polysilicon manufacturers have postponed their investment plans for polysilicon plants, which may give the domestic "two out" photovoltaic industry a turning point.
In spite of this, for domestic PV companies, which occupy 90% of the global market for wafers and components and face a crisis of survival, this does not seem to have much appeal. The lower cost and better quality eventually led them to tilt toward the overseas market in the context of double increase in domestic polysilicon production and production capacity and an increase in inventories.
According to the latest customs statistics, since the beginning of July, China’s polysilicon import volume has hit a new high in March, reaching 6,489 tons in September alone and 16 tons more than in August. The previous August data has just reached the highest record of 6,153 tons since November 2010. From the same period of last year, the import volume of polysilicon also continuously increased by more than 40% during the same period. The largest year-on-year ratio was 71.6% and the minimum was 41%. As a result, as of the first three quarters of China's cumulative import of polysilicon reached 48,500 tons, already more than last year's total imports of about 45,000 tons.
For the domestic photovoltaic industry, which started late, it is not surprising that polysilicon has long relied on imports. With the growth of the domestic polysilicon industry, its dependence on imports has gradually declined, but since 2011, the deteriorating market trend has made the already somewhat eased import dependence rise quietly. Different from the loss of the market because of the limitation of output, the effect of “inflow of foreign polysilicon and production of domestic polysilicon†caused by the shrinking of terminal demand is creating a new supply and demand cycle for domestic photovoltaic “two ends outâ€.
Imported fierce first three quarters
"From the current situation, this year's import dependency is likely to rise back to about 60%." A polysilicon industry in Sichuan said so. According to him, the domestic polysilicon import volume once exceeded 80% in 2008, and has gradually dropped to 50% in the following two years. According to the forecast at the beginning of the year, it may be further reduced to 40% this year, thus to a certain extent, to get rid of foreign markets for domestic photovoltaic upstream raw materials. control.
Obviously, contrary to what was expected, the polysilicon market, which entered the period of sluggish demand from the second quarter, has repeatedly shocked the continuous increase in actual import data. Only half a year later, its cumulative imports have exceeded the expected data for the full year. Before this, the market had expected that the domestic polysilicon production this year will be about 70,000 tons. According to the 40% dependence, the total import volume will be about 47,000 tons.
According to customs data, in the first half of 2011, the import volume of polysilicon increased at first and then decreased. Among them, affected by the start of domestic polysilicon companies in January, the import volume was once as high as 5512 tons. In February, it gradually fell to 3,316 tons under the gradual recovery of the domestic market. However, with the cooling demand in the downstream of March, the volume of imports rose again. To 5921 tons, the ring increased by 78.56%. In the following three months, the import volume began to decline slightly. In April, May and June, it was 5,664 tons, 5,273 tons and 4,692 tons respectively.
July entering the third quarter is undoubtedly the month of import turnover this year. Polysilicon imports rose to 5,191 tons this month, a year-on-year increase of 41%, and an increase of 10.62% over the previous period. In the following August, imports increased steeply to 6,473 tons, an increase of 71.6% year-on-year, and an increase of 24.7% from the previous quarter. In September, another record high was that while imports of polysilicon reached an annual peak of 6,489 tons, its cumulative import volume also exceeded 48,500 tons, which already exceeded the full-year forecast.
The European and American markets are still the main markets for domestic polysilicon imports. The total import volume of the United States and Germany has accounted for about 40% of the total imports for a long time. According to customs data, in the third quarter, imports of polysilicon from the United States and Germany reached 4,139 tons and 3,408 tons, respectively, which accounted for 22.8% and 18.77% of the total import volume in the current quarter.
At the same time, it is worth noting that since June, domestic imports from South Korea have also suddenly increased, and they quickly surpassed Europe and the United States. Imports data for July showed that South Korea's imports of polycrystalline silicon reached 2,054 tons, far higher than the United States and Germany that ranked second in the list. The latter had only 1,320 tons and 720 tons respectively. In August, the German market rebounded, but in absolute terms, South Korea has already replaced the United States in ranking first. In the same month, China imported 2,521 tons of polysilicon from South Korea, 1,401 tons from the United States, and 1,249 tons from Germany, which were 22.7%, 4.6%, and 73.4% higher than the previous month.
According to industry sources, the Korean polysilicon industry started relatively late, but after nearly two years of technology digestion and production capacity increase, the overall output has increased significantly, so its international market share will gradually replace the traditional European and American countries.
Overseas large companies "prices together"
However, the reason that the import volume of polycrystalline silicon increased month by month in the third quarter is still closely related to the excess capacity of foreign polysilicon under the market demand that Europe and the United States continue to shrink.
It is understood that in 2011, the debt crisis in Europe continued to deteriorate, and Europe and the United States, which occupy the main market of photovoltaic terminals, did not finally usher in the improvement in demand. This has led to global polysilicon production capacity in the upcoming production of the current year and next year have to fall into the trap of overcapacity. As a major consumer market for polysilicon, China has also become a place where foreign giants hope to open their markets. In spite of the fact that domestic stocks have increased in the mid-to-downstream of the PV market and companies have reduced production or stopped production, the demand in the domestic market has remained at a relatively high level due to the expansion of production capacity of large enterprises and the increase in the investment of some large-scale PV companies.
Compared with domestic polysilicon enterprises, the competitiveness of foreign polysilicon companies is undoubtedly reflected in the product's cost and quality. This naturally becomes the killer for many leading polysilicon companies. By continuously reducing market prices and curtailing profit margins, companies that have relatively high domestic costs are slashing prices, and ultimately cut production or stop production. The markets that originally belonged to domestic polysilicon companies were thus filled by imported polysilicon.
“The number of domestic companies that can compete with imported polysilicon costs is not much, and the quality is also slightly better, so it is difficult to compete.†The aforementioned polysilicon industry believes that the current domestic demand for polysilicon is in short supply, but due to vicious competition Actual output is already insufficient. Can be corroborated is that the customs data in the previous September also shows that it is in the third quarter of continuous decline in the price of polysilicon, including the German WACKER, including European and American polysilicon manufacturers to China's exports increased significantly.
However, at the same time, for overseas polysilicon manufacturers, their profit margins have also been reduced. WACKER's financial report in the third quarter shows that although sales of Asian customers have increased significantly, the profit before tax depreciation and amortization of solar grade polysilicon in the third quarter still fell by 6% compared with the same period of last year, with a profit margin of 47.4% in the quarter. It also fell 6.9% from the same period of last year. The Korean polysilicon manufacturer OCI, which has been the top three in terms of domestic imports, also experienced a rapid decline in revenue and profit margins in the third quarter of 2011. According to the company, its revenue from the polysilicon sector fell from 572 billion won in the second quarter to 395 billion won in the third quarter. The profit rate also fell from 50% in the second quarter to 36% in the third quarter.
Global expansion of production capacity
In the current situation of weak terminal demand, whether it can alleviate the “two out†market predicament caused by the surge in domestic polysilicon imports, we still need to look forward to the upcoming 2012 polysilicon market structure. Due to the large space for integration of the domestic polysilicon market, only when the oligopoly situation with several large polysilicon manufacturers abroad is established, the degree of domestic import dependence will be eased.
“The shipping radius is the largest advantage for domestic polysilicon companies. Therefore, as long as the production cost is slightly increased, it will replace imported goods. This is also the reason that South Korea's imports in the past six months are higher than those in Europe and the United States.†The aforementioned sources believe that through integration, Domestic large-scale polysilicon companies have great competitive advantages and can compete with overseas giants. It can be seen that, in the first nine months of this year, domestic exports of polysilicon also increased month by month. Although small, it is enough to prove its competitiveness.
It is worth noting that with the development of the photovoltaic industry, the seven overseas giants of crystalline silicon that had once mastered more than 80% of the world's polysilicon market - the United States Hemlock, MEMC, Japan Mitsubishi, Sumitomo, Tokuyama, Germany Wacker, Norway REC situation has been Changes are taking place. Up to now, due to the substantial expansion of production capacity and utilization rate of South Korea's OCI and GCL, the polysilicon market in 2011 has been replaced by Hemlock, Wacker, OCI, and GCL's most influential people. Nowadays, it is called the "four diamonds" of solar polysilicon.
However, the polysilicon market in 2012 is facing more rapid expansion of polysilicon production at home and abroad. According to data from professional agencies, with the addition of production capacity of new giants abroad, foreign polysilicon production capacity will increase by 54.8% on 2012 basis to reach 238,900 tons, while domestic polysilicon production capacity will increase by 170.75% to reach 10.37 million. Ton. It is worth noting that part of the production capacity has been gradually released in the second half of 2011. This also led to the current situation of polysilicon prices continue to fall.
Obviously, in the absence of downstream demand, and the expansion of upstream production capacity, the international polysilicon price will continue to face a downward trend, which will obviously reverse the domestic polysilicon import trend. What domestic polysilicon companies can expect is that, apart from improving cost control capabilities, only the recovery of terminal demand and the pace of expansion of overseas polysilicon manufacturers will slow down.
Perhaps fortunately, at present, some overseas polysilicon manufacturers have postponed their investment plans for polysilicon plants, which may give the domestic "two out" photovoltaic industry a turning point.
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