LED development is rapid, production capacity is tight and short-term

Looking at the large-size LCD panel backlight market within three years. 2009 is the first year of LED TV backlight. The global LED TV penetration rate is less than 10%. In 2010, the market exceeded expectations, resulting in tight LED supply. In the next few years, LED TV penetration rate will accelerate. Displaysearch expects LED penetration to reach 70% by 2013. By then, the demand for backlights for LCD panels will reach 80 billion, and the market size will exceed 10 billion US dollars. If the penetration rate reaches 100% in the future, the panel production capacity will be 2012. The number of LED backlights required for computing will exceed 110 billion, and the market size will reach $13 billion.

The market for daylighting will come early. Technological advances have led to a continual reduction in the initial cost of LED luminaires, while the total cost of use is significantly lower than other sources. Under the policy of banned incandescent lamps in various countries, the recent benefit of fluorescent energy-saving lamps has exceeded that of LEDs, but fluorescent substances and other harmful substances such as “mercury” have prominent environmental problems in the disposal of waste products. Therefore, we judge that the general lighting market will not have to undergo fluorescent lamps in the future. Instead of incandescent lamps, LED lamps replace the steps of fluorescent lamps, but LED lamps directly replace incandescent lamps. The popularity of LEDs in the general lighting market can be greatly advanced. Considering the drop in unit price, it is conservatively estimated that the LED lighting penetration rate will reach 15% in 2015, and the relevant market size will exceed 50 billion US dollars!

Due to equipment supply and talents in place, global production capacity continues to be tight. The unexpected growth in the LED market has led MOCVD suppliers AIXTRON and Veeco to expand their production plans, but in reality the actual production of the two companies will still be determined by the final demand of the market. We judge that the equipment capacity of the two manufacturers will not necessarily catch up quickly when the equipment is currently in a high degree of monopoly. This is because, on the one hand, it is subject to the expansion of the production cycle brought by the resources of the enterprise itself, and on the other hand, as a monopolist. The high profit brought by the market's short supply is worth maintaining, and suppliers may control the actual output according to the market rhythm. In addition, although the equipment factory is expanding rapidly, in 2010, the expansion of LED upstream sapphire and SiC substrate did not keep up, resulting in rising substrate material prices, LED chips appearing price increases, although substrate manufacturers began production capacity in the second half of the year. Expansion, but it takes a certain amount of time from import to output. Therefore, global LED production capacity is likely to continue to be tight in 2011.

The advantage of domestic manufacturers lies in local advantages. Domestic manufacturers in the large-size panel backlight, the temporary market gap is limited by the lack of consistent product capacity and the lack of downstream panels and LCD module channels, it is expected that this situation will continue until 2012, followed by domestic LCD Panel 6 generation line, 8 generation line and mass production of module manufacturers can achieve substantial breakthroughs in downstream channels. In addition, two years later, domestic LED chip manufacturers' capacity release and technological progress will echo the mainland LCD panel industry. The domestic lighting market benefits from the promotion of LEDs by local governments and subsidies to enterprises. Local manufacturers have external conditions that are bigger and stronger. For local companies, the lighting market is not only "cake" big enough, but also preferentially enjoy ".

In the choice of listed companies, we have chosen to be able to directly or indirectly benefit from the rapid growth of LEDs in the past two years. Need to pay attention to the LED faucet Sanan Optoelectronics with the big ones Everlasting; the technology accumulation is good, the production capacity doubled in the two years expected Silan Micro (17.21, -0.06, -0.35%); with Samsung, LG and other LCD TV customer channel advantages And can take the fast-growing Gore Acoustics (29.30, 0.00, 0.00%) in the LCD backlight market in the near future; the domestic inductor leading company Sunlord Electronics, its product power chip is an essential component of the LED light source drive circuit; Han's laser (12.30, 0.09, 0.74%) of LED packaging equipment, and the newly listed LED packaging company Guoxing Optoelectronics.

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