First of all, he was busy responding to the “double counter†investigation in the United States. The next step was to wait for the EU’s anti-dumping verdict. The “winter†of China's PV companies seems to be somewhat unusually cold.
The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has repeatedly assisted, following the official filing of anti-dumping investigations against polysilicon of the United States and South Korea, it has also accepted the domestic Jiangsu Zhongneng Silicon, Jiangxi LDK Solar Silicon Technology, Luoyang Zhongsi High-tech and Chongqing Daxin Brand New Energy 4 large-scale The application submitted by the polysilicon enterprises for the application of the “double counter†investigation to the polysilicon of the EU has been interpreted by the industry as China has begun to take countermeasures.
Perhaps there will be several happy situations, but industry analysts have pointed out that no matter which party implements the "double reaction", it will only be a double-loser situation, and it will be a matter for both polysilicon companies and downstream component battery companies. There will be no joy in winning.
Silicon companies in the suffering industry "whether it is polysilicon or single crystal silicon, now someone's day is not easy." A domestic polysilicon company executives told reporters.
Since November last year, the busy factory scene has suddenly disappeared. "Starting means losing money." The executives said bluntly.
The data from the China Nonferrous Metals Association shows that since the second half of 2011, China's polysilicon industry has experienced a serious inventory backlog. Only 8 companies in the 43 polysilicon enterprises that have been put into operation are still in production. Other companies have stopped production, and the production rate has been as high as 80%. Of the still-starting companies, most of them are running at a loss and are gradually reducing their output.
This is in stark contrast to the continuous rise in polysilicon production since 2008.
In fact, from 2008 onwards, China's polysilicon companies have been subject to pressure from overseas polysilicon companies to varying degrees. “Only the world is facing an economic crisis and we have suffered a lot.†The above executives said, “We hope that the country can Measures are taken in countries such as the United States, South Korea and Europe."
It is understood that the current total cost of foreign suppliers is about 20 US dollars / kg, the domestic domestic polysilicon companies in the cash cost of 30 US dollars / kg. Polysilicon is a capital and technology-intensive industry. In general, gross profit must be above 30% to be profitable, otherwise there may be dumping. The current import prices are all at US$25/kg.
From the perspective of domestic polysilicon material plants, resisting the low-cost imports and dumping of foreign polysilicon materials will undoubtedly be very beneficial to the survival of domestic polysilicon material plants. Judging from the actual situation of domestic polysilicon material plants, most of the silicon material plants do not have the core technology to eliminate 2 to 3 strong polysilicon material plants. They have started late, are small-scale, and have high energy consumption, which has caused production. High cost result. Or because of the large investment in the early stage of the silicon material plant and high financial and management costs, it is inevitable to be at a disadvantage when competing with foreign polysilicon material plants.
Wang Runchuan, a former senior analyst at IMS Research, who is currently working in Jing'ao, sighed heavily when interviewed by reporters. “No one wants to have a double-counter incident, because this is a double-loser incident, no matter who is implementing double opposition.â€
And China's "countermeasures" may intensify conflicts. The Ministry of Commerce recently accepted applications for "double reverse" investigations on polysilicon in the EU and decided whether it would take another month or so for the case to be filed. From the perspective of Wang Chuanchuan, from the perspective of the original intention, it is a card that the government has played out, hoping that the European Commission can make some softening, but the European Commission may “do not eat this set, and it may be counterproductive.â€
Photovoltaic market fatal damage If the double reverse is established, the dominoes will be overturned, and all industries in the photovoltaic industry chain will be hard hit.
"If China does not import silicon materials from the United States, South Korea and the European Union, and domestic silicon materials companies increase their prices, the price of components will rise and the market will also become smaller, so many of its customers may die. "Wang Runchuan said.
This phenomenon will also appear in the international market. Another person with the same view said that at present, the PV market price tends to be “cheapâ€. If the polysilicon material is “double-antiâ€, it will inevitably cause the price of polysilicon material to rise. It is expected to increase by more than 30% to the downstream. For battery and component manufacturers, it will be a disaster.
According to the prediction of mainstream organizations, at present, the market share of European silicon wafers is still above 50%. If the European market is closed to China, the market for China's photovoltaic products will also be reduced by half.
The New Energy Chamber of Commerce of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce issued a statement a few days ago to firmly oppose the EU's anti-dumping case against Chinese PV products and called on the EU to come to China as soon as possible to negotiate and resolve trade disputes through dialogue. This was after another announcement issued by the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products, another national private industry organization issued a voice on the anti-dumping case.
Like most Chinese PV companies, most of Hui Lun’s markets are in Europe. Hui Long Solar’s ​​chairman Cai Jibo told China Enterprise News reporters that if Europe’s “double reverse†passes, it would be “double negative†for Europe. The negative impact has at least five aspects: First, end-users in Europe will not be able to enjoy cost-effective photovoltaic products; second, the time for “cheap Internet access†throughout Europe will be significantly delayed; third is the use of photovoltaic industry practitioners in Europe. The international image will therefore be greatly reduced; Fourth, Europe’s “double opposition†is essentially “protecting backwardness and constraining itself†and the establishment of “double opposition†will seriously affect the process of upgrading the competitiveness of “Made in Europe†in the international market; In the end, the "double reaction" also undermined the bilateral mutual trust and healthy trade cooperation mechanisms already established by China and Europe, and may even trigger trade wars that could have been avoided.
“Compared with the United States, the dual anti-procedures in Europe seem to have a little help for China. Before deciding whether to impose a double tax, the European Commission will conduct investigations in the industry and will investigate importers and end-users to see if It will harm the interests of the society.†Wang Runchuan told reporters that there are two disadvantages. The first is the scope, which may be from silicon wafers to modules. Second, voting rights are controlled by 27 European Commission countries. If you decide not to collect taxes, then 14 countries need to vote against it. Even if 13 countries oppose it, if one country agrees and 13 countries abstain from voting, then they will still be taxed.
Zhao Yuwen, deputy director of the China Renewable Energy Society and director of the Photovoltaic Committee, suggested that Chinese PV companies should make the worst plans. The EU's installed photovoltaic capacity accounts for roughly 70% of the world's total, and the United States accounts for close to 10%. If these two markets close the door to China, then China's PV companies will suffer a fatal blow.
The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has repeatedly assisted, following the official filing of anti-dumping investigations against polysilicon of the United States and South Korea, it has also accepted the domestic Jiangsu Zhongneng Silicon, Jiangxi LDK Solar Silicon Technology, Luoyang Zhongsi High-tech and Chongqing Daxin Brand New Energy 4 large-scale The application submitted by the polysilicon enterprises for the application of the “double counter†investigation to the polysilicon of the EU has been interpreted by the industry as China has begun to take countermeasures.
Perhaps there will be several happy situations, but industry analysts have pointed out that no matter which party implements the "double reaction", it will only be a double-loser situation, and it will be a matter for both polysilicon companies and downstream component battery companies. There will be no joy in winning.
Silicon companies in the suffering industry "whether it is polysilicon or single crystal silicon, now someone's day is not easy." A domestic polysilicon company executives told reporters.
Since November last year, the busy factory scene has suddenly disappeared. "Starting means losing money." The executives said bluntly.
The data from the China Nonferrous Metals Association shows that since the second half of 2011, China's polysilicon industry has experienced a serious inventory backlog. Only 8 companies in the 43 polysilicon enterprises that have been put into operation are still in production. Other companies have stopped production, and the production rate has been as high as 80%. Of the still-starting companies, most of them are running at a loss and are gradually reducing their output.
This is in stark contrast to the continuous rise in polysilicon production since 2008.
In fact, from 2008 onwards, China's polysilicon companies have been subject to pressure from overseas polysilicon companies to varying degrees. “Only the world is facing an economic crisis and we have suffered a lot.†The above executives said, “We hope that the country can Measures are taken in countries such as the United States, South Korea and Europe."
It is understood that the current total cost of foreign suppliers is about 20 US dollars / kg, the domestic domestic polysilicon companies in the cash cost of 30 US dollars / kg. Polysilicon is a capital and technology-intensive industry. In general, gross profit must be above 30% to be profitable, otherwise there may be dumping. The current import prices are all at US$25/kg.
From the perspective of domestic polysilicon material plants, resisting the low-cost imports and dumping of foreign polysilicon materials will undoubtedly be very beneficial to the survival of domestic polysilicon material plants. Judging from the actual situation of domestic polysilicon material plants, most of the silicon material plants do not have the core technology to eliminate 2 to 3 strong polysilicon material plants. They have started late, are small-scale, and have high energy consumption, which has caused production. High cost result. Or because of the large investment in the early stage of the silicon material plant and high financial and management costs, it is inevitable to be at a disadvantage when competing with foreign polysilicon material plants.
Wang Runchuan, a former senior analyst at IMS Research, who is currently working in Jing'ao, sighed heavily when interviewed by reporters. “No one wants to have a double-counter incident, because this is a double-loser incident, no matter who is implementing double opposition.â€
And China's "countermeasures" may intensify conflicts. The Ministry of Commerce recently accepted applications for "double reverse" investigations on polysilicon in the EU and decided whether it would take another month or so for the case to be filed. From the perspective of Wang Chuanchuan, from the perspective of the original intention, it is a card that the government has played out, hoping that the European Commission can make some softening, but the European Commission may “do not eat this set, and it may be counterproductive.â€
Photovoltaic market fatal damage If the double reverse is established, the dominoes will be overturned, and all industries in the photovoltaic industry chain will be hard hit.
"If China does not import silicon materials from the United States, South Korea and the European Union, and domestic silicon materials companies increase their prices, the price of components will rise and the market will also become smaller, so many of its customers may die. "Wang Runchuan said.
This phenomenon will also appear in the international market. Another person with the same view said that at present, the PV market price tends to be “cheapâ€. If the polysilicon material is “double-antiâ€, it will inevitably cause the price of polysilicon material to rise. It is expected to increase by more than 30% to the downstream. For battery and component manufacturers, it will be a disaster.
According to the prediction of mainstream organizations, at present, the market share of European silicon wafers is still above 50%. If the European market is closed to China, the market for China's photovoltaic products will also be reduced by half.
The New Energy Chamber of Commerce of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce issued a statement a few days ago to firmly oppose the EU's anti-dumping case against Chinese PV products and called on the EU to come to China as soon as possible to negotiate and resolve trade disputes through dialogue. This was after another announcement issued by the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products, another national private industry organization issued a voice on the anti-dumping case.
Like most Chinese PV companies, most of Hui Lun’s markets are in Europe. Hui Long Solar’s ​​chairman Cai Jibo told China Enterprise News reporters that if Europe’s “double reverse†passes, it would be “double negative†for Europe. The negative impact has at least five aspects: First, end-users in Europe will not be able to enjoy cost-effective photovoltaic products; second, the time for “cheap Internet access†throughout Europe will be significantly delayed; third is the use of photovoltaic industry practitioners in Europe. The international image will therefore be greatly reduced; Fourth, Europe’s “double opposition†is essentially “protecting backwardness and constraining itself†and the establishment of “double opposition†will seriously affect the process of upgrading the competitiveness of “Made in Europe†in the international market; In the end, the "double reaction" also undermined the bilateral mutual trust and healthy trade cooperation mechanisms already established by China and Europe, and may even trigger trade wars that could have been avoided.
“Compared with the United States, the dual anti-procedures in Europe seem to have a little help for China. Before deciding whether to impose a double tax, the European Commission will conduct investigations in the industry and will investigate importers and end-users to see if It will harm the interests of the society.†Wang Runchuan told reporters that there are two disadvantages. The first is the scope, which may be from silicon wafers to modules. Second, voting rights are controlled by 27 European Commission countries. If you decide not to collect taxes, then 14 countries need to vote against it. Even if 13 countries oppose it, if one country agrees and 13 countries abstain from voting, then they will still be taxed.
Zhao Yuwen, deputy director of the China Renewable Energy Society and director of the Photovoltaic Committee, suggested that Chinese PV companies should make the worst plans. The EU's installed photovoltaic capacity accounts for roughly 70% of the world's total, and the United States accounts for close to 10%. If these two markets close the door to China, then China's PV companies will suffer a fatal blow.
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