In 2011, a month has passed and various market analysts have released prediction reports on the industry outlook. The following are the 2011 forecasts listed by AreteResearch:
1. In the IC market, there are overlapping conflicts in the three major areas of consumer electronics, mobile phones and PCs. Semiconductor industry circles will also set off strategic battles and may even experience unprecedented structural changes. Possible scenarios include:
̇Qualcomm, Broadco, Marvell and ST-Ericsson will all set off to attack Mediatek's gray mobile phone market and win over customers who produce low-priced smart phones.
The lead time of Android products from silicon chip manufacturers is extended from 4 days to 20 days in 18 months.
With the mass production of 28nm process, the GHz-class processor price will fall below $10 in 2011.
̇CSR and Synaptics may become the target of this year's acquisition—CSR's Bluetooth and GPS expertise will make Intel and Marvell and other vendors interested in the target, while the latter two companies are trying to expand the wireless product map, and CSR and Broadcon The legal issue has been resolved. Synaptics is because its expertise in touch panel module technology is popular and its price is not high, so it may become an attractive bid target.
The chip suppliers or foundries in the two camps of Intel and ARM may have a lot of infringement disputes.
2. DRAM market is very difficult for the memory market this year's mainstream trend, will be the original ranking of the NAND flash memory field performance will exceed DRAM, and replaced as the market's protagonist. AreteResearch estimates that the DRAM market will decline by 26% in 2011, but the NAND market will achieve 28% growth, and the revenue scale will expand from 22 billion US dollars to 29 billion US dollars.
The agency also predicts that DRAM prices will fall by 29% and 12% respectively in the first two quarters of 2011 after falling 30% in the fourth quarter of 2010. From the demand side, the main problem is that the application spending of memory buyers has shifted from traditional PCs to smart phones and tablet devices; the growth performance of the PC market will remain the most critical factor affecting the DRAM market this year.
This trend obviously has a significant impact on the capital expenditure plans of memory manufacturers. In 2011, the capital expenditures of DRAM manufacturers decreased by 40%, but the capital expenditure of NAND flash memory companies grew by 85%, which is the first time in history. DRAM capital expenditures are surpassed by NAND.
However, although NAND flash memory makers have invested heavily, this year, there should be no oversupply because the new suppliers (Toshiba, IMFS, and Samsung) of the three major suppliers will not start mass production until the first half of 2012, so by 2012, In the middle of the year, the market will not be oversupply.
3. The outlook for the semiconductor equipment industry is improving. The semiconductor capital equipment industry has shown signs of improvement. Although the DRAM industry is in dire straits, the record level of capital expenditures of foundry players and the accelerated investment of logic chip makers are expected to drive wafer fab equipment (WFE). The market grew by 8% in 2011, reaching a scale of US$32 billion.
Therefore, in the short term, it is expected to see an improvement in the order status of semiconductor equipment; previously, AreteResearch predicts that semiconductor equipment supplier orders may decline by 5-10% in the first two quarters of 2011, but now is due to the announcement of a series of logic chip maker capital expenditure plans. The order status of the semiconductor equipment industry in the first two quarters is expected to shrink by 5% or 5%.
4. End-market performance is flat Although Intel is optimistic about the PC and server market, Arete Research still maintains a 10% growth forecast for this year's shipment and believes that the PC application semiconductor market may have only 5% revenue in 2011. The growth performance. The demand for data centers and corporate PCs from emerging markets will offset the demand for government and consumer PCs in developed markets. The data center will be the fastest growing market in 2011.
The wave of smart phones (and flat-panel devices) will enable the performance of the wireless chip market to surpass other logic semiconductor markets in 2011, but intense price competition will limit the growth rate of the market to only about 10%; according to AreteResearch, the tablet device The market has about 56 million units shipped this year (average selling price is estimated at 400 US dollars) and the total sales amount is about 22 billion US dollars.
In the TV market segment, Samsung and LG did not achieve their expected sales targets in 2011, mainly because LED-backlit TVs cost 30-50% more than regular CCFL-backlit LCD TVs and could not attract consumers. AreteResearch predicts that buying in the TV market will slowly improve in the first half of 2011, while LED chip inventory will return to normal levels, and new models of LED-backlit TVs will also be available. The agency estimates that LED-backlit LCD TV shipments will triple this year to reach 102 million units.
5. The LED market is booming as LED backlights gradually enter low-end LCD TV models, which is expected to drive further growth in the LED market this year; the average sales price of LED chips due to the slowdown in demand for notebook/TV backlight modules was the fourth in 2010. Quarterly decline of 10 to 15%, AreteResearch estimates that LED chips will fall another 30% in the first half of 2011, and may also experience another wave of decline will stabilize. However, LED shipments this year should have risen from the original forecast of 95 million to 102 million.
6. The oversupply of MOCVD equipment AreteResearch estimates that the shipment of MOCVD equipment for LED production in 2010 was 245 units, and the market presented an oversupply situation; orders for such equipment mainly came from China. Although MOCVD equipment is estimated to have 730 units in 2011, it may be reduced to 638 by 2012.
According to reports, the Chinese government will cancel subsidies for LED manufacturers to purchase MOCVD machines, but it has not yet been confirmed; AreteResearch believes that China's domestic LED industry investment boom will not fade in the first half of 2011, but due to lack of local professionals, self-made LED chip quality Not good, so you may face real challenges in a short time.
1. In the IC market, there are overlapping conflicts in the three major areas of consumer electronics, mobile phones and PCs. Semiconductor industry circles will also set off strategic battles and may even experience unprecedented structural changes. Possible scenarios include:
̇Qualcomm, Broadco, Marvell and ST-Ericsson will all set off to attack Mediatek's gray mobile phone market and win over customers who produce low-priced smart phones.
The lead time of Android products from silicon chip manufacturers is extended from 4 days to 20 days in 18 months.
With the mass production of 28nm process, the GHz-class processor price will fall below $10 in 2011.
̇CSR and Synaptics may become the target of this year's acquisition—CSR's Bluetooth and GPS expertise will make Intel and Marvell and other vendors interested in the target, while the latter two companies are trying to expand the wireless product map, and CSR and Broadcon The legal issue has been resolved. Synaptics is because its expertise in touch panel module technology is popular and its price is not high, so it may become an attractive bid target.
The chip suppliers or foundries in the two camps of Intel and ARM may have a lot of infringement disputes.
2. DRAM market is very difficult for the memory market this year's mainstream trend, will be the original ranking of the NAND flash memory field performance will exceed DRAM, and replaced as the market's protagonist. AreteResearch estimates that the DRAM market will decline by 26% in 2011, but the NAND market will achieve 28% growth, and the revenue scale will expand from 22 billion US dollars to 29 billion US dollars.
The agency also predicts that DRAM prices will fall by 29% and 12% respectively in the first two quarters of 2011 after falling 30% in the fourth quarter of 2010. From the demand side, the main problem is that the application spending of memory buyers has shifted from traditional PCs to smart phones and tablet devices; the growth performance of the PC market will remain the most critical factor affecting the DRAM market this year.
This trend obviously has a significant impact on the capital expenditure plans of memory manufacturers. In 2011, the capital expenditures of DRAM manufacturers decreased by 40%, but the capital expenditure of NAND flash memory companies grew by 85%, which is the first time in history. DRAM capital expenditures are surpassed by NAND.
However, although NAND flash memory makers have invested heavily, this year, there should be no oversupply because the new suppliers (Toshiba, IMFS, and Samsung) of the three major suppliers will not start mass production until the first half of 2012, so by 2012, In the middle of the year, the market will not be oversupply.
3. The outlook for the semiconductor equipment industry is improving. The semiconductor capital equipment industry has shown signs of improvement. Although the DRAM industry is in dire straits, the record level of capital expenditures of foundry players and the accelerated investment of logic chip makers are expected to drive wafer fab equipment (WFE). The market grew by 8% in 2011, reaching a scale of US$32 billion.
Therefore, in the short term, it is expected to see an improvement in the order status of semiconductor equipment; previously, AreteResearch predicts that semiconductor equipment supplier orders may decline by 5-10% in the first two quarters of 2011, but now is due to the announcement of a series of logic chip maker capital expenditure plans. The order status of the semiconductor equipment industry in the first two quarters is expected to shrink by 5% or 5%.
4. End-market performance is flat Although Intel is optimistic about the PC and server market, Arete Research still maintains a 10% growth forecast for this year's shipment and believes that the PC application semiconductor market may have only 5% revenue in 2011. The growth performance. The demand for data centers and corporate PCs from emerging markets will offset the demand for government and consumer PCs in developed markets. The data center will be the fastest growing market in 2011.
The wave of smart phones (and flat-panel devices) will enable the performance of the wireless chip market to surpass other logic semiconductor markets in 2011, but intense price competition will limit the growth rate of the market to only about 10%; according to AreteResearch, the tablet device The market has about 56 million units shipped this year (average selling price is estimated at 400 US dollars) and the total sales amount is about 22 billion US dollars.
In the TV market segment, Samsung and LG did not achieve their expected sales targets in 2011, mainly because LED-backlit TVs cost 30-50% more than regular CCFL-backlit LCD TVs and could not attract consumers. AreteResearch predicts that buying in the TV market will slowly improve in the first half of 2011, while LED chip inventory will return to normal levels, and new models of LED-backlit TVs will also be available. The agency estimates that LED-backlit LCD TV shipments will triple this year to reach 102 million units.
5. The LED market is booming as LED backlights gradually enter low-end LCD TV models, which is expected to drive further growth in the LED market this year; the average sales price of LED chips due to the slowdown in demand for notebook/TV backlight modules was the fourth in 2010. Quarterly decline of 10 to 15%, AreteResearch estimates that LED chips will fall another 30% in the first half of 2011, and may also experience another wave of decline will stabilize. However, LED shipments this year should have risen from the original forecast of 95 million to 102 million.
6. The oversupply of MOCVD equipment AreteResearch estimates that the shipment of MOCVD equipment for LED production in 2010 was 245 units, and the market presented an oversupply situation; orders for such equipment mainly came from China. Although MOCVD equipment is estimated to have 730 units in 2011, it may be reduced to 638 by 2012.
According to reports, the Chinese government will cancel subsidies for LED manufacturers to purchase MOCVD machines, but it has not yet been confirmed; AreteResearch believes that China's domestic LED industry investment boom will not fade in the first half of 2011, but due to lack of local professionals, self-made LED chip quality Not good, so you may face real challenges in a short time.
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