2011 is the first year of smart TV. After two years of development, like smart phones, smart TV will develop from the competition of hardware and software to a comprehensive competition based on the application of core competitiveness. With the improvement of smart TV product capabilities, network service capabilities, core application capabilities, and user acceptance, application and intelligence have become mainstream, and smart TV will usher in another important development stage after "high-definition" in the history of TV development.
According to Display research data, in 2011, there were 4 million smart TVs in China, 16.75 million units in 2012, and 26 million units in 2013, rising all the way. From 2011 to 2012, it has expanded as much as 4 times, reaching 26 million in 2013 Taiwan, product leakage rate will reach 90%, smart TV will exceed 90% in 2015. It is foreseeable that the blowout of this industry will bring a huge change in home entertainment. After all, TV will still occupy the center position of home entertainment.
As this industry gradually matures, various application services around the smart TV will become the protagonist of the smart TV industry, and video services, game services, family life services, social services, education services, etc. will become the user's return to the TV. Important pulling power. At the same time, competing for living room entrances and living room services will become an important battlefield for IT and Internet companies. This is also an important reason why companies such as Google, Apple, Lenovo, and even Xiaomi, LeTV, etc., have rushed to the traditional TV service providers to enter the TV field.
This is a new ecology, a new market.
On the whole, in the era of smart TV, color TV companies need to integrate panel manufacturers, chip manufacturers, operating system suppliers, content integrated broadcast control platforms, content suppliers, Internet suppliers, App applications and accessory manufacturers to form a new and complete Industry ecosystem. Any link in the ecosystem is very important, it is the comprehensive integration of resources facing consumer demand.
But this seems to be the "ideal on paper" and the most ideal state. As of the end of 2012, China's smart TV market is still in chaos. In terms of mode, the battle between the IPTV network TV promoted by the operator and the OTT (Over The Top, open Internet-based video service) advocated by the broadcast and television network continues. This is a policy game and a competition between interests , Other players such as video websites, developers, etc. are awaiting the results; competition among manufacturers, 3D, 4K, cloud services, smart systems, chips, etc. are all starting to swell, and TV manufacturers have to guard against IT manufacturers. "Invasion"; on the market, consumers still don't seem to have a cold on the interactive experience and application design of smart TVs. The business model of the ecosystem is not yet mature, and developers are suspicious.
In 2013, what will the Chinese smart TV market show?
Debate over models in a booming market
Compared with traditional TVs, smart TVs have inherent advantages: not only media tools, but also features such as rich functions and independent expansion. The process of switching from traditional TVs to smart TVs is not only a technological advancement, but also It is the expansion of consumer rights and the driving force behind the booming market.
At the industrial policy level, the state is stepping up efforts to promote the development of the digital TV industry. In February 2011, the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" for the Digital TV and Digital Home Industry released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has already set the future, indicating that it will vigorously promote the growth of digital TV industry sales revenue during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" By 2015, the sales value of the audio-visual industry, which mainly focuses on digital TV and digital homes, should achieve the goal of "doubling from 2010", reaching 2 trillion yuan.
In simple terms, the advent of smart TVs has followed the trend of high-definition, networked, and intelligent TVs. When the PC has already been intelligentized, and mobile phones and tablets are also intelligent on a large area, TVs have not escaped the eyes of the IT giants and began to become intelligent. Smart TVs are becoming the third information access terminal after computers and mobile phones, and users can access the information they need at any time. In the environment of triple play, smart TVs based on open software platforms will become an important carrier of triple play, and will play an important role as a home multimedia information platform. From a global perspective, IT Internet giants and color TV giants have invested heavily in the development of smart TVs. The development of smart TVs has become an irreversible trend.
However, another set of data shows that in the face of the impact of personal PCs, the Internet, tablets, and smartphones, the current TV boot rate in Beijing is only 30%, which is a decrease of 40% compared to three years ago. TVs are falling out of favor.
This is why TV "must" move towards networking, intelligence, application, and even IT: leaving the crowd, especially those with strong consumption power, in the living room. So the current situation is that everyone is optimistic about this market, but like other industries, at the beginning, each family has its own mind, especially in the domestic market. The battle between the IPTV of the telecommunications department and the OTT of the optoelectronics department has continued for several years.
The core of OTT (overthetop) means to provide services on the network, emphasizing the independence of the service from the physical network, which shows its openness. The basis of IPTV operation is the broadband network (proprietary network) built by the operator, and a certain business model has been established. To put it simply, OTT is closer and more idealized to consumers, and IPTV is more mature and feasible at least at present-because IPTV is an early service for telecommunications to develop video, it has invested a lot of money and energy, and has sent a lot of boxes. Low stock users.
In the long run, "Internet Weekly" is more optimistic about the development of the OTT model. Without it, it is more open and more in line with the interests of users. But it is an indisputable fact that the OTT model has encountered difficulties in China. Its policy risks and vague business model make it too early to replace IPTV.
On October 28, 2011, the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television issued Document 181 "Notice on Printing and Distributing" Operation and Management Requirements for Organizations Holding Internet Television Licenses "". The Chinese-style OTT is legalized, but the operating rights are limited to only seven: China Internet TV, BesTV , Hangzhou Huashu, Southern Media, Hunan TV, China International Radio and China Central Radio.
In terms of business model, the current domestic OTT model has not formed a paid business model such as IPTV. Whether it is a TV or a set-top box, profits are concentrated in terminal sales links, and other income links are difficult to control and it is difficult to form sustainable service revenue. Although some insiders have proposed OTT's "website model relying on VC investment support", or cooperation with telecom operators to use IPTV business models plus Internet TV content and products, "in the name of Internet TV to implement IPTV in reality" mode , But the prospects are to be tested. In contrast, the favorable policies and the speed-up of broadband for telecommunication operators such as optical network cities have made IPTV face a favorable development environment.
More seriously, from the perspective of foreign development, the core of OTT is virtual operation, relying on the marketization laws of the upstream and downstream resources of the industrial chain, relying on the user's forward payment as the foundation of survival, and giving all parties the corresponding benefits in return. Virtuous circle. But in China, it is difficult to build a benign interest chain without a payment foundation, and the industrial environment is open but disorderly, policy supervision is closed, and interest groups are monopolized. This makes it difficult for China's OTT to have a virtual operating soil.
The only way to break the game is still in policy-the "better" triple play policy will break the policy barriers for smart TV development. The latest news shows that the State Council has written in November 2012 and agreed to form China Radio and Television Network Co., Ltd., funded by the Ministry of Finance, and the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television is responsible for the establishment and escrow, with a registered capital of 4.5 billion yuan. As the "fourth largest operator" of China Radio and Television, according to the requirements of the goal of promoting the integration of the three networks, it is expected to obtain international export bandwidth, backbone network licenses, ISP and IDC licenses in the future. At the same time, once local broadcast operators can obtain new Internet access ports through China Radio and Television, Internet audiovisual content will enter TV screens supervised by the broadcast and television system just around the corner.
IPTV and OTT seek some way to merge, this is the first variable.
Chaos in the early stage of the industry
It is precisely because the policy variables remain, the model exploration is undecided, and the business prospects are yet to be tested. Although the entire smart TV market hopes to change from a "terminal hardware to software and content" model, it is currently faltering.
The current smart TV market structure, in addition to telecom operators and broadcasting systems, the main players are TV manufacturers, IT Internet companies and application development companies around the entire ecosystem, in addition to chip, accessories, content services and other players.
In terms of TV manufacturers, the domestic smart TVs are mainly dominated by six domestic color TV giants such as Skyworth, Haier, Hisense, Konka, Changhong and TCL. Together with the joint venture Samsung and LG Electronics, these companies have basically launched their own Chinese companies. High-end "smart cloud TV", and set off a round of war in the market.
Specifically, most manufacturers choose the Android operating system, and 3D and LED are almost standard equipment. In terms of technology, high-end products are basically polarized 3D and edge-lit LED backlights with a resolution of 1920 & TImes; 1080. Mainly, there are not many innovations in hardware specifications, but services such as cloud services, intelligent interaction, and multi-screen interaction are still emerging. At the same time, some domestic IT and Internet giants, such as Lenovo, took the lead in launching smart cloud TVs in mid-201. Since then, LeTV has adopted the Internet concept of the upcoming "super TV" and box strategy.
From the system point of view, although Windows and Mac systems still have great potential, so far, due to the great success of Android systems on smartphones and open source features, the current domestic smart TVs are mainly Android, which also leads to the homogeneity of applications The phenomenon is obvious. In addition to personalizing the TV operation interface, customizing each unique "app store" has become the only way to create differentiated competition. Compared with the number of software in the application store, the types of quality games, and the number of exclusive applications, they have become the highlights of market competition.
Compared with the development of "play ticket" application stores in the same industry, manufacturers interested in systematically creating smart TV application stores are more worthy of expectations. Previously, the Samsung TV brand had launched a TV application design competition, in order to find the popular application software unique to the Samsung TV application platform, and Hisense, Konka, etc. at home also began to try.
The competition in the chip field is relatively clear, but there are also many players. These chip manufacturers will have their own layouts. The chips in the TV field are still dominated by dual M (MediaTek and Morningstar MStar), and the merger of the two is equivalent to a single situation. However, some other manufacturers such as HiSilicon have also made significant moves. At the same time, cross-border players in other fields, such as mobile phone and tablet chip manufacturers, have begun to transform into this field. There are also Qualcomm and Navidia, although there are now smart TVs using their chips, but not too much.
The set-top box market is another situation.
At present, China has divided the Internet TV in the general sense into three and issued three licenses: one is IPTV, which is accessed through a private telecommunications network; one is digital TV, which is accessed through a cable digital TV network; and one is Internet TV with Chinese characteristics , Can be accessed through a common network on the Internet. All three must have licenses and only be issued to broadcasting and television institutions recognized by the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television. The path of Internet players can only be the third one-even if the Internet can change elections in the United States and shopping in China, it is still unable to catch up with TV.
The most fierce speculation in the industry is the Xiaomi box and the LeTV box-the latest news at the end of January 2013 shows that Xiaomi Technology and CNTV's future TV reached a cooperation. In the next 3 years, the Xiaomi box will be integrated into the Chinese Internet TV operation of the future TV On the broadcast control platform, this cooperation heralds that Xiaomi Box, which was previously suspended, has broken the license limit and will be re-launched on the market. Before Xiaomi Box, LeTV, which also has no platform qualification, also adopted the cooperation with CNTV to obtain the set-top box sales qualification.
In fact, the Internet box is not a new product. Since Microsoft's "Venus" plan in 1999, the names of digital home, digital TV, IPTV, set-top box, OTT, smart TV, and Internet TV have made users dizzy. . They have only one purpose: to use the Internet to change the world, to open the closed TV industry chain, to open the TV, to connect freely like computers and mobile phones, and to provide users with digital content without restrictions.
However, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently issued a document clarifying the replacement timetable for terrestrial digital TV receivers in 2015, seeking "boxless" development-this is a big blow for "boxes". According to reports, on December 21, 2012, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the five major departments issued the "Implementation Opinions on the Popularization of Terrestrial Digital TV Receivers", proposing to complete the popularization of terrestrial digital receivers within the next three years. The specific goals are: Starting from the 1st of January, terrestrial digital TV reception is required for 40-inch and above TV sets sold in the domestic market. Since 2015, all TV sets sold in China should have terrestrial digital TV reception capabilities.
Therefore, the second variable is still related to policy, but the core is that smart TV players can return to the ultimate attitude of serving consumers, concentrate on improving service quality and level, and form a benign competition situation.
Development ecology under new business model
Previously, people hoped that Apple would once again revolutionize the traditional TV pattern just like changing the rules of the mobile phone industry-Apple TV is also a bastion that Jobs always wanted to conquer in his life time. "Jobs" on Apple TV There has been such a description: "Jobs hopes to create a completely easy-to-use integrated TV that can seamlessly synchronize with all users' devices and iCloud, without switching between various remote controls, and has the simplest user interface."
Users hope that the TV is a mature product, but the smart TV currently on the market is very bad: various hardware configurations, different operating systems, massive APP software, different networking methods, different content platforms, Various human-machine interfaces, and even a variety of external interactive devices ?? Smart TV is currently presenting more redundant functions and applications, which makes the TV more cumbersome.
In fact, in the 80 years of television invention, the previous development was relatively slow, but the development in recent years has entered the same rapid update process as the IT industry. While China is still annoyed by the unauthorized listing of Internet TVs, PC manufacturers have announced that "smart TVs are PCs"-the "application" of TVs has become unstoppable. In foreign countries, Samsung first released Android-based smart TVs before Google officially released the Android operating system for smart TVs. Microsoft is not alone in proclaiming that Xbox itself is a TV, and Opera and Samsung have launched their own TV application stores. It is conceivable that, in the future, at the software level, the upgrading speed of TVs will continue to increase in the fierce competition.
For developers who are exhausted in the field of mobile Internet, smart TV will be a brand new start and still in the blue ocean. Various startups may be successful in application development around the desktop, mobile or Web, and they may also be tempted to move the original development experience to the TV. At the same time, the TV screen has just begun, and the number of applications itself is very small, it is easier for developers to stand out in the new blue ocean of TV. Yang Yongqiang, CTO of LeTV.com, believes that with the continuous expansion of the smart TV market, the prospects for application development are broader: "It is expected to become the core of the home smart entertainment center, allowing young people's entertainment to return to the living room, allowing children to expand their horizons and entertain , So that the elderly can enjoy the digital sunset red life. "
Like mobile phones, domestic smart TVs are derived and customized under the large platform of the Android system. In theory, the software that adapts to the Android system can be adapted on smart TVs, but it cannot be simple because of different product attributes and usage scenarios. Porting adaptation. For developers, the dilemma doesn't stop there: low household stickiness, national policy restrictions, lack of unified standards, poor control methods, and unclear business models, etc. all plague them. Especially the latter three have made many developers have a headache.
The reason why smart TV is smart is that it can be equipped with various applications, but the current smart TV operation experience is not good. "Not use" and "not easy to use" have become the most complained words by users and users. To a large extent, interaction has become the biggest factor restricting the development of smart TVs.
Simply copying the smart phone interface and simply adapting to the traditional TV remote control is the main reason why the entire smart TV is not well controlled. How to meet the needs of TV users while adapting to the changes in control brought by smart TVs will be Smart TV is an important breakthrough that needs to be overcome. In fact, many remote controls with touch screens were already on display at CES in early 2013.
In terms of platforms, the current support for smart TV background services has just begun, and there are currently three types of platforms that support smart TV operations: TV manufacturers self-built, Internet TV licensees, and Internet companies, among which TV manufacturers self-built have become mainstream, including Hisense, TCL The manufacturers inside each have their own operation support platforms. In terms of operating system uniformity and operation platform business support, such as advertising platforms, payment platforms, CDN distribution platforms, and other resources, they still lack mature and standardized operations, which gives the Internet Companies and developers bring certain obstacles.
In terms of application stores, there are not many smart TV application stores in China. The relatively neutral ones are mainly LeTV and Huanwang. In addition, TV manufacturers have their own application stores, such as Skyworth and Hisense. But now the manufacturers of application stores on traditional mobile phones have also seen the potential in this regard, and gradually began to move to the field of smart TV application market. Letv is determined in this regard, and its application store Letv Store has currently preset more than one million terminals, and reached cooperation with TV manufacturers such as Skyworth, Konka, Haier, Hisense, and implanted in its smart TV.
It is worth noting that in the context of the explosion of smart phones, it is a good choice to start with the mobile terminal.
On New Year's Day in 2013, Hunan Satellite TV officially released its TV interactive social smartphone client application-Hula. After downloading the hula, the user enters the hula world and transforms into a hula character. By scanning the QR code and various graphic images of Hunan Satellite TV, he can obtain various growth nutrients and rewards. The behavior preference of the user when interacting with Hunan Satellite TV will shape The characteristics of the hula character allow users to develop their own personalized characters based on their preferences. There is also Kuyun TV, which currently performs well, which can realize dual-screen real-time interaction between the TV and the second screen of the mobile terminal. For example, when a commodity appears during the live broadcast, it can also immediately push the purchase information of the commodity to your mobile phone. If you happen to be interested in buying this product, you can go directly to the purchase page to purchase.
In addition, China ’s first smart TV application development organization, China Smart Multimedia Terminal Technology Alliance (China-Chile League), was established in August 2012. The alliance will provide smart TV application developers with technology, channels, venture capital and developer rewards. Support on multiple levels. CIMC was initiated and established by TCL, Changhong, Hisense, MSTAR, MTK, Huawei HiSilicon and other companies, and will provide developers with a one-stop development application platform, including development tools, documents, code examples and technical support. In terms of industry funds, China-Chile League, together with dozens of venture capital institutions such as Broadband Capital and Gobi Investment, supports high-quality industrial projects and helps developers establish sustainable business models.
Take a comprehensive look at when the developer section is clear-this means that mature business models are beginning to appear-smart TV will soon usher in a big outbreak, and currently see the possibility of preliminary realization in 2013, this is the third variable.
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